Wednesday, 22 June 2016
The economic effects if "Leave" polls higher
These are the facts. Anything else the "Remain" or "Leave" campaigners say about what might happen after "Leave" is successful is speculation. However, it is safe to assume that inward investment, which has hitherto been attracted, to Wales and the English regions in particular, by our membership of the common market, would decline. The UK would probably not immediately fall down an economic cliff, contrary to the journalistic claims of some the "Remain" leaders, but the prospect is of a tailing off affecting our children and our children's children.
It should also be pointed out that £350m a week would not become instantly available on June 24th to spend on the NHS and all the other things promised by Vote Leave in their provisional budget (no mention there of the cost of increased border staff, by the way). Negotiation to untangle our relationship with the other 27 nations would almost certainly take the full two years stipulated by the current Treaty and final exit could be delayed until 2020. So we would still be making a contribution to the EU budget for years to come, Since this is based on three factors, all dependent on economic activity, this may come down from 2015's £8.5bn (£163m/week), but then so would much of our own government's revenue which is also dependent on a thriving economy.
Of course the UK could simply immediately renounce its treaty commitments and parliament vote to remove all EU-related laws from the statute book. Parliament has the sovereign right to do this, but the effect would be dismal. If the UK tore up treaties unilaterally, we would lose international trust for a generation at least. We would put ourselves in the same basket as Argentina and Zimbabwe. Who would negotiate tariff-free deals with us?