An Englishman of forty years residence in Wales pontificates about politics (slightly off-message), films and trivia. Secretary of Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats. Candidate for Neath in the Westminster elections of 1997 & 2017 and the Welsh general election of 2016.
Wednesday, 7 December 2016
The mean vote swing from UKIP to Liberal /Democrat in Witney and Richmond Park is roughly 16%. Feeding that into my copy of UK-Elect produces the following forecast for a general election held now: