Phew!

I didn't actually predict that government income would have a big boost in January. It was more that I saw the disappointing tax returns in 2014 as a sign of a switch from PAYE to self-employment and that January would be a test as those assessed on a half-yearly basis, including the self-employed, had to settle up. It was a relief to see the ONS figures just released.

I still believe that the government was entitled to believe that the rest of the EU would recover at or near the same pace as the UK and that if France in particular had been in better economic health we would have seen more benefit over here.