One rule for spin doctors, another for real doctors

 It seems that a pay settlement for senior doctors is close, though the outcome is going to be short of the full uprating to take account of inflation. Contrast that with what was set in motion three years ago,  to increase election spending limits in line with inflation. There is a case for doing this, though as The Constitution Unit blog pointed out: 

raising limits is one thing; how you raise them is another. One approach would be to raise them immediately in line with the value of money in time for the next election. This would set the new limit at nearly £38 million at 2022 prices – even higher at 2023 ones. The danger of doing this would be (at least) twofold.

First, it would be very likely to widen the spending gap between the two largest parties and their competitors. While the Liberal Democrats actually outspent Labour in 2019 (having received a donation of some £8 million just prior to the campaign), the typical pattern has been that the Liberal Democrats have spent between 24% and 37% of the Conservatives’ campaign expenditure. Given the Liberal Democrats’ lack of a natural pool of large donors, the gap between higher and lower-spending parties would be likely to widen quite significantly.

Second, while parties’ income typically reflects the general election cycle, party popularity at any one time is influential in their ability to raise income. In 2019, the Conservatives raised over £19 million in declared donations in the short period between dissolution and polling day. Labour, by way of contrast, raised only £5.4 million, 61% of which came from one source – Unite. So, a significantly larger spending limit would almost certainly benefit those parties that were most able to raise money – typically, the most popular ones. The concern here is not which party benefits, but that parties that are most popular at the time of the spending limits uplift would be most able to exploit this higher limit and would be disproportionately advantaged.

The government has, however, gone ahead with the full uprating, at the same time moving to increase the threshold at which donations to political parties have to be declared from £7,500 to £11,180. The Electoral Commission is not happy:

The Commission's research shows a long-term decline in public confidence in the political finance system.

Any changes to spending or reporting thresholds must be supported by rigorous analysis, including on the likely impact on public confidence and transparency.

The Commission has not seen evidence to support these changes. It is concerned that the proposals risk damaging the transparency of political donations, and gives significantly more scope for higher spending parties to campaign.

Moreover, there seems to have been no move to increase the size of penalties in line with inflation, let alone raising them to a level at which they would present a real deterrent, as the EC has long wished.

A neutered Newsnight

 BBC announces:

BBC Two's Newsnight is to be cut back and have its format overhauled as part of a plan to save money in the corporation's news department.

The long-running show will lose its dedicated reporters, be shortened by 10 minutes and drop its investigative films to focus on studio-based debates.

 

Surely we do not need more discussion programmes. If Auntie wanted to save money, she could take off air some of those we already have, fronted by prominent, contentious and no doubt expensive journalists. What we need is more reportage (such as tonight's on a failing NHS trust in England) not less.

Local taxation review

 A consultation on restructuring council tax bands began on 14th November. But, as an economics expert said on ITV Wales news tonight said, it is a regressive tax. It is unfortunate that the  Welsh government does not seem to have even considered the possibility of replacing the Conservatives' council tax with a fairer local income tax.

Those TV Christmas ads

 So far, this year's seasonal commercials by the big retailers show no great advances on previous years' Indeed, M&S uses the same animated tree-top fairy inspired by Dawn French as graced our screens last year. Tesco has been slightly more innovative, but must have left many of my generation with a queasy feeling, echoing as it does the first Quatermass Experiment in which a returning astronaut crew morph into a terrifying human/cactus chimera. Points to ASDA for using Michael Bublé who has done so much to keep the big band tradition going. My favourite, though, is Morrisons' if only for using Starship's big hit as the backing track.

Al-Aqsa attacks fuelled Hamas's slaughter

 Patrick Cockburn yesterday confirmed my impression that the violation of one of Islam's holy sites was a major factor in rousing the Muslim population of Gaza to violence. The oldest surviving work of Islamic architecture in the world, the seventh-century al-Aqsa mosque has been subject to increasing desecration by the Israeli authorities and by un-policed religious zealots. The regular harassment of worshippers has escalated into acts of violence such as this one last April. The Hamas incursion of October 7th may have been well-planned, but it would not have been so ferocious without the resentment which has built up over the last few years.

Cockburn writes: 

A survey of Palestinian opinion in Gaza and the West Bank conducted in the first week of November by the Arab World Research and Development group shows that some 60 per cent of the Palestinians polled backed the Hamas attack on 7 October and 16 per cent give it moderate support.

Before that date some 44 per cent of Gazans polled expressed total and 23 per cent partial distrust of Hamas, but today 76 per cent say that it is playing a positive role. The survey sample is small – 277 respondents in Gaza and 391 on the West Bank – but the largest number (35 per cent) say that the main reason for the Hamas attack was the perceived Israeli threat to Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem, the third holiest shrine in Islam, with freeing Palestine and breaking the siege of Gaza next most important.

Israelis and foreigners alike tend to underestimate the importance of Al-Aqsa as the ultimate symbol of Palestinian national and religious identity. A danger here is that Israeli ethno-religious fundamentalists and settlers on the West Bank are welcoming the present crisis as an ideal moment for them to move against the three million Palestinians there. Villages and towns are cut off by settler checkpoints and some 191 Palestinians were killed before and 201 killed after 7 October, according to the UN.

One recalls that the Second Intifada was sparked mainly by then Israeli leader Ariel Sharon dancing on the Temple Mount. Over this century, both the Israeli and Palestinian populations, Jews, Christians, Muslim and others alike, have been steadily brutalised.  Just over forty years ago, the massacres in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps brought a tenth of the Israeli population out on the streets to protest. That would be unlikely to happen today. A recent opinion survey in Israel reports 85% support for the actions of the IDF in Gaza. Cockburn is surely correct when he signs off his article: "The day is a long way off when Israelis and Palestinians recognise that, unless both enjoy security, neither will be safe."

Electoral paralysis in The Hague

 My first thought on seeing reports of Geert Wilders' "monster victory" in the Netherlands general election this week was how good Brexit was for the EU. The Union could well do without another xenophobic right-wing government alongside Hungary and Italy to welcome the latest addition to their number.

More rational thinking prevailed. Wilders' populist party may be the largest in parliament after the election, but it does not have an overall majority. It looks as if Wilders will find no partners for the coalition which would be necessary for him to become prime minister. Not even the formerly liberal VVD, whose campaign also attacked refugees, much to the disgust of D66, the LibDems' sister party in The Netherlands, has come to Wilders' aid. So it looks as if The Hague is in for a lengthy period of horse-trading before a government can be formed, though probably not as long as Belgium is used to.

Critics of PR will point to this paralysis, saying that first-past-the-post leads to strong government. If strong government means that a fascistic demagogue like Wilders gets overall power (has any psephologist run the Dutch figures to see if that would be the case under FPTP?), then I will continue to press for PR, thank you!

Cook County, L13

  The Liverpool Echo has published details of the trial just ended of the murderers of Ashley Dale. A talented and aspirational young council officer was undeservedly killed, her only mistake being that of a poor choice of boy-friend.

It seems that a great city is now riddled with violent crime, perpetrated by gangs armed with sub-machine guns fighting for their share of the illegal drugs trade. It even spilled over into my old home town, once boringly peaceful Wallasey.

Liverpool has clearly not recovered from the loss of sea trade resulting from UK's joining the European Common Market nor the blow delivered to the football pool industry by the National Lottery. The Heseltine regeneration looks good but it can only be a surface attraction until the crime gangs have been eliminated and the gratuitous killings cease.

Exolete

Appropriate to today's Autumn Statement is Anu Garg's word of the day: exolete.  It means stale, failed, obsolete, all adjectives one may apply to this government's economic thinking. For that matter, the Opposition's reply did not depart from orthodoxy much. 

Two familiar messages: growth is God and anyone claiming benefit rather than working is a scrounger. 

Chancellor Hunt promised many incentives to business, especially small business, some of which are welcome. But there is no point in encouraging businesses to take on workers if those workers cannot afford to travel. There was no suggestion in today's Statement that the cuts in bus subsidy are to be reversed. The increase in the minimum wage is hardly enough to provide an electric car, which will soon be de rigueur. And where is the incentive for the necessary fast recharging stations?

Sickness would be better tackled by restoring the NHS and public health systems to what they should be, as Rachel Reeves stated in her Opposition response, rather than forcing people to work in unsuitable conditions. For that reason, the unplanned rise in tax income due to inflation would be better ploughed back into the health service, staunching the flow out of the NHS in all the home countries. Chancellor Hunt made much of the increase in trained medics, but unless government stops the flight of experienced doctors and nurses to where facilities and pay are better, our health will continue to suffer.

Finally, he was right to criticise the two occasions when the health budget was cut in Wales. For some reason, he did not lay the blame on Plaid Cymru who were instrumental on both occasions.

Germany keeps faith with Ukraine

 France24 reports that, on the 10th anniversary of the Maidan occupation that signalled the beginning of the end of the corrupt Russia-friendly government, Germany has come forward with a further military aid package. 

The German package – worth 1.3 billion euros ($1.4 billion) and including four further IRIS T-SLM air defence systems as well as artillery ammunition – was unveiled by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius after talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov, in Kyiv.

"I am here again, firstly to pledge further support but also to express our solidarity and deep bond and also our admiration for the courageous, brave and costly fight that is being waged here," Pistorius said earlier when he laid flowers at Maidan square in central Kyiv.

Michel, the president of the European Council, announced his arrival in Kyiv by posting on social media a picture of himself getting off a train.

"Good to be back in Kyiv among friends," he wrote ahead of expected meetings, including with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

 

Who ordered the evacuation of al Shifa?

 Michael Lerner, the smooth-talking spokesman for the Israel Defence Force, denies that it was one of the IDF's commanders who told the director to evacuate the hospital complex. Instead, he said, the request for assistance to move the patients was initiated by the hospital and he told the BBC that he has a voice recording to prove it. Now, it is up to others to evaluate that recording, since I have no Hebrew and only know a few (irrelevant) words in Arabic. However, it stretches credulity that any doctor would volunteer to take seriously-ill patients and premature babies from the shelter of a building, damaged and short of materiel though it is, on to a road exposed to the elements, decaying corpses and possible sporadic gunfire, not knowing how far it was from the next medical facilities. As I understand the initial news reports, the director was contacted by telephone and told to evacuate within one hour, at which he pointed out that they had no safe means of moving the patients. Were the Israelis going to provide ambulances, he asked? Perhaps it was that query which was doctored to make it sound as if it was the initial request. Given Israel's expertise is cutting-edge software, it is also possible that the director's voice was faked.

The good news is that, although four of the premature babies perished in the period since essential power and supplies were cut off, the remaining twenty-eight are safe and bound for specialist facilities in Egypt. Their lives have been saved, though there is a danger of some long-term damage to their development as a result of their early trauma.

On the subject of babies, there is an infographic going the rounds comparing the rates of extermination under the Nazis and the results of the Israeli bombing of Gaza. It is a striking, simple criticism of Netanyahu but does not stand up to scrutiny. Firstly, although the average daily death toll is less than that quoted for the October 7th reprisals, the Nazi shoah was carried out over years. The Gaza war has lasted just over a month and the death toll was highest in the early days. The rate is now declining and there are whispers of a cease-fire, which the US is in a strong position to dictate. Thus the final total of children killed will be minuscule compared to the Nazis' "final solution".  Secondly, the Gaza figures come from the Hamas Ministry of Health, and as far as I know have not been independently verified. This is not to deny that the IDF has been guilty of unnecessary, excessive and virtually random killing of civilians, but introducing Hitler to the argument inevitable topples over into anti-Semitism.

Netanyahu is swift to raise the bogey of anti-Semitism whenever he is criticised. The fact is that he is less concerned about defending the Jewish people than he is avoiding embarrassment. He has criminal charges hanging over him and while he may yet be convicted, thus being forced to resign, the Gaza emergency has turned him into a war leader whom few will want to remove. (NB I am not stating that he is a criminal; there is a presumption of innocence under Israeli law.)  Hence a cease-fire is not in his interests. Different considerations apply to President Biden. It is received wisdom that the "Jewish vote" goes to the Democrats. It is assumed that all the US Jewish community would support Israel right or wrong. However, the rise in pro-Palestine demonstrations across the Union in recent days has shown that traditional Democrat voters, especially the young, and including progressive Jews, are not happy with the presidency's initial stance. Biden is coming up for re-election next year. There is no way that the doubters  will switch to Trump - the Donald is even more pro-Netanyahu than senior Democrats are - but if enough of them lose faith in the Democrats to the extent of staying at home on polling day, the White House will fall to the Republicans. On the other hand, if Biden is seen to have engineered a peace deal in the region, he will receive a boost to his popularity. And he has economic levers at his disposal which he can threaten to pull. 

Expect a cease-fire within a fortnight. It will be followed by the recriminations.

Starmer's Labour to follow New Labour down the privatisation road

 In an i podcast, shadow Health Minister Wes Streeting has said he would “hold the door wide open” to the NHS for the private sector after Labour wins the coming general election. This fits in with the wooing of Sir Keir by one or two prominent private health groups as reported in some media and relayed here. It is worryingly similar to the attitude of Blair, Brown and Mandelson and the Labour government of 1997-2010 which saw short-term savings and long-term losses. Hospitals were built under PFI contracts for which some trusts will have to pay for years to come. Other outsourcings were shown to be more costly than if the functions had been retained in-house. 

Rail money going to roads, and not very much of it

 Today's government press release confirms that some of the money from the cancelled HS2 rail project will be diverted to the roads. However, £8.3bn spread over 11 years for the whole of England comes to around £750m per year which does not seem very much when one considers the backlog of potholes and cracks in England's minor roads.

Moreover, there is no mention in the government statement of consequential money for Scotland and Wales, where the need for road repairs is probably even greater.

Father of the blues

 William Christopher Handy was born on this day 150 years ago in Florence, Alabama. Wikipedia says; "Handy did not create the blues genre but was the first to publish music in the blues form, thereby taking the blues from a regional music style (Delta blues) with a limited audience to a new level of popularity. "

Braking point ... overshot?

 In March 1999, BBC Wales TV mounted a mixed programme of discussion and documentary about public transport in Wales. Glyn Mathias hosted "Braking Point" in a transport museum with Peter Hain, then transport minister in a pre-devolution Welsh Office, putting the New Labour government point of view. There were also contributions from an invited audience comprising representatives of transport users and providers.

Unless the corporation has kept a video, no copy of the programme exists in any collection or online. What follows is from a viewing of a DVD which was in turn converted from a domestic VHS cassette. (We are looking at ways of further converting to a YouTube-friendly format.)

Much is unchanged twenty-five years later: Train services were poor, but there was promise of better to come when new train sets were to be delivered. Government anti-pollution taxes on road vehicle  fuel were hitting small businesses. There was no integrated ticketing such as shown in an inserted report from the Netherlands. One thing has actually got worse: the availability of any form of public transport in large parts of rural Wales.

CAT appeal

 Sadly, the Centre for Alternative Technology is no longer open to casual visitors, though arrangements for group visits remain. The official release stated: 

With a heavy heart, we are closing our visitor centre to day visitors from today (9 November). It will, however, remain open for students, group visits, events, and courses.     Sadly, 14 positions are at risk at CAT and a full consultation will take place across at least 14 days. Staff wellbeing is of course our utmost priority, and we are providing specialist support to staff during this difficult time.   This decision has been made due to a number of factors, during a challenging time for the charity sector in the UK. The combination of rising running costs, reduced visitor numbers to Wales post-pandemic and funding delays have made it economically inviable to continue operating the visitor centre in its current model — despite our best efforts to mitigate these factors. However, our proposals to rejuvenate our eco centre are still progressing, and have been earmarked for significant funding. Once this funding is secured, it will allow us to re-open fully and raise more funds in future — inspiring many more people to take action on the climate and nature emergency through attracting more visitors, providing additional courses and learning opportunities, and expanding our accommodation so more people can stay at CAT when they visit from afar.   The Graduate School of the Environment and short course delivery are unaffected, as is our work with schools and other groups, and our Zero Carbon Britain Hub and Innovation Lab. In these ways we will continue our vital work sharing the skills, knowledge and tools required to tackle the climate and nature crisis.  As a supporter, your kindness and generosity makes such an incredible difference. Please donate today to help us continue creating and sharing practical solutions for a safer, healthier and fairer future.

Donate now

It seems to me that there is now all the more need to reach out to the local community, which was not the case in the past as shown by earlier comments on this blog. There would also seem to be a natural synergy between CAT and the National Botanic Gardens which could be more exploited. I write as one who has enjoyed visiting both several times. 

Well, nobody expected that

 The immediate thought when the news came through of David Cameron's being made a life peer (one trusts that the appointments committee has cleared this) and foreign secretary is that the prime minister has need of his predecessor's PR and networking skills. A less charitable explanation is that appointing a MP with th same level of experience is bound to upset one or another faction in the Conservative party when Sunak badly needs friends 

Cameron may not be subject to the regular FO question time in the Commons, but he may expect rather more forensic examination in the Lords, which bristles with foreign policy experts and retired defence chefs.

 

Government wants to micro-manage the wrong councils

 One would think that the government would praise councils which adopted money-saving measures and let them get on with it. South Cambridgeshire started a trial four-day week for its employees last January and has seen the benefits exceed expectations. The council leader states that half-a-million pounds in savings are already guaranteed, as recruitment has become easier and the necessity for expensive agency staff has gone down. However, the government has ordered the council to desist immediately. Could the fault be that South Cambridgeshire is run by Liberal Democrats? Or perhaps the government has an interest in contract agencies.

Government ministers were more laissez-faire when it came tp Conservative-run councils. It was not until Birmingham, Northamptonshire, Thurrock and Woking had to declare, or threaten to declare, the local government equivalent of bankruptcy that attention was paid. The last-named is now under Liberal Democrat control and progress is being made.

Another of Sunak's promises struggles to be fulfilled

 In January, prime minister Sunak promised five things: to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the national debt, cut NHS waiting lists and stop undocumented immigration.

Stopping the boats was always going to be a fantasy and cutting waiting lists wishful thinking, but halving inflation and  increasing GDP should each have been a walk-over. The first target should have easily been met because of the exceptionally high levels the CPI had reached; what goes up has to come down. The second was even more achievable because successive Tory administrations had reduced economic activity below that of our international competitors, so that any return to normal would have looked sparkling. 

Well, inflation is still well above the Bank of England's target of 2%. And today's release of GDP data for the previous quarter shows stagnation, not recovery. Admittedly, some of the data are not yet finalised and later corrections tend to add a percentage point to the growth figure, but that would still leave a washed-out image of the UK economy

For comparison, initial estimates of GDP in the same quarter in USA and in our nearest competitor France show growth of 4.9% and 0.1% respectively.

2023 on course to break records

 So this year could be the warmest on record? That is hard to believe, considering how few long spells of hot weather we have had here. But I bet this has been the wettest, even for Wales, for many a year.

Ceasefire or pause

 The Commons has had a good day. After a thorough examination of the future of the steel industry in England and Wales, during which the Minister rowed back on an earlier commitment to producing primary steel as a national strategy, honourable and right honourable members tackled the humanitarian implications of the war in Gaza and Israel. Mercifully, most MPs heeded the request of the deputy Speaker to keep contributions brief, though some succumbed to the temptation to lay on the suffering with a trowel.

There was much argument about the need for a ceasefire, incidentally laying bare differences on the opposition benches and to some extent the government's. The  trouble is, it seems to me, that the word means different things to different people. To many right-thinking people in the West it means an end to Israel's area bombing of residential areas and targeting ambulances and aid facilities because there might be fighters hidden there. To the Israelis, it means giving up on eradicating Hamas. Surely there is a middle ground. Israel is justified in armed police action against known terrorist leaders. (I nearly wrote "entitled" but that would imply approval under international law.) Hamas would of course have to give up weaponry in return. There are two difficulties. The ultimate leadership of Hamas is safe in Qatar and insulated from the daily suffering in Gaza and Israel; and there are splinter groups in Palestine and Lebanon firing rockets who will not follow a lead from Hamas. It needs a strong intermediary - Qatar looks favourite - to obtain a necessary pause at least.

Andrew Mitchell, for the government, did at least commit to a call for "pauses". Nor, dramatically, did he associate himself with Ms Braverman's depiction of pro-Palestinian sentiment as "nasty". Are the Home Secretary's days numbered?

Pushed from the headlines (4 of 4): Sudan

 The conflict in Sudan continues to inflict death and displacement on citizens. The war, basically between two military men vying for power, has killed almost as many as Israel and Hamas between them.

After six months and several attempts at peace talks, it shows no sign of abating. Yesterday brought news of an atrocity in Omdurman. 

Pushed out of the headlines: Nagorno-Karabakh

 The repossession of the Armenian enclave by the Azeri government in the autumn has not resolved all tensions. There had been bloody battles, exacerbated by the differences in religion between the Christian Armenians and Muslim Azeris, while Russia, supposedly a friend of both nations, stood on the side-lines.

Germany appears to have stepped into the breach with a visit to Armenia by the foreign minister at the weekend.  Clearly Germany would like to see both nations drawn under the EU ambit, though Ms Baerbock seems not to have visited Baku on her trip. Moreover, by laying a wreath at the monument to the Armenian genocide, she may have lost Turkish support in any negotiations.

Pushed out of the headlines: earthquakes

 I had already planned to highlight the devastating earthquakes in Afghanistan of last month when news of another in Nepal came through. I trust that anyone who can spare it donates to  the Gurkha Welfare Trust or another accredited agency.

Pushed out of the headlines: Ukraine

 Both the war in Ukraine and the suffering of her people at the hands of the Russians still receive the occasional mention on UK's broadcast media, but there has been nothing like the coverage before the Hamas atrocities and the Israeli reaction. In a way, that is a good thing because the slowing-down of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been dispiriting. On the other hand, Western leaders may be tempted into withdrawing military and other aid believing the conflict has reached stalemate. This is dangerous thinking. Ukraine needs to keep up her aggression using current resources merely in able to hold the current positions. Withdrawing supplies will enable Russia to come back again. Giving just a little more help, and a mild winter, may enable Ukraine to regain momentum.

If you need detail on progress, go to the Guardian's day-by-day account , or Aljazeera's equivalent, currently day 617. 

Six weeks in 2020

 It was with gratification mixed with renewed anger that I read Ian Dunt's account in today's i of the evidence to the Covid-19 Inquiry given by former deputy cabinet secretary, Helen MacNamara. I had posted a couple of times (this was typical) about the six weeks wasted before neglect turned to panic in Downing Street in March 2020. Ms MacNamara's evidence gave independent confirmation. 

It was a thorough, judicious, objective description of a failure of governance on a near-biblical level. And it did not come from someone with an axe to grind It was damning in a way that Cummings never could be because she had minimised any sense of personal animosity and strategic calculation.

MacNamara was measured, calm, even remorseful. It goes without saying that Cummings despised her and spoke of her in heavily misogynistic tones when he was in government. He was always "dodging stilettos rom that c**t," he told Johnson on WhatsApp. 

He wanted to "handcuff her". But now it was her time in the witness box. And she laid it out step by step, every failure, every superficial thought. every irresponsibility, every unforced error, every personal and organisational inadequacy.

On 13 March 2020, MacNamara had walked into the prime minister's study. "I have come through here to the prime minister's office to tell you that I think we are absolutely f**ked," she said. "I think this country is heading for a disaster. I think we are going to kill thousands of people." Her testimony was the story of how that situation was allowed to develop.

She outlined how Johnson's response to the early months of the Covid outbreak was typified by machismo, ignorance and baseless confidence. During those key weeks between January and March 2020 the evidence from overseas became overwhelming.

It was increasingly clear we were facing a profound threat to British people's lives. But Johnson's private behaviour seems to have been identical to his public persona - the "cake and eat it" prime minister, the man who engaged in jolly old England self-satisfaction over evidence and sustained thought.

"Mr Johnson was very confident the UK would sail through," MacNamara said. He spent much of the time "laughing at the Italians", despite that country providing an early test-case for what was about to hit Britain. 

Dunt then details the sexism, the limiting of debate and discussion, the talking over of junior people. Everything was contaminated by ego. My guess is, though, even if the deputy cabinet secretary had been a man and that there had been more open discussion, the closed minds of those in charge would have led to the same outcome. And hundreds of thousands of UK residents died before their time.

Callous Johnson beyond satire

 Around three years ago, I posted - rather tongue-in-cheek - in another place the following imagined scenario in 10 Downing Street as Covid-19 hit these shores:

Picture the scene. The chair of the then scientific advisory committee
offers the advice that the disease was most lethal to the elderly and
those with existing health conditions, and that there was evidence that
the BAME community was disproportionately affected. Boris: "So it kills
off crusties, cripples and nig-nogs? Bring it on!"

Yesterday, the Covid-19 Inquiry heard that, according to Sir Patrick Vallance's diaries, the prime minister was at one with too many Conservative MPs who believed that Covid-19 was nature's way of dealing with the old. 

In August 2020, Sir Patrick wrote that Mr Johnson was "obsessed with older people accepting their fate and letting the young get on with life and the economy going".

So my imagined conversation was not as exaggerated as my readers thought.