Thanks to a Facebook friend, Daniel Hannan MEP's rosy predictions of a UK adrift from Europe, made before the 2016 referendum vote, have come to my attention. Some of them should already have come to pass; others seem increasingly unlikely. Some examples:
The last thing most EU leaders wanted, once the shock had worn off, was a protracted argument with the United Kingdom which, on the day it left, became their single biggest market. Terms were agreed easily enough. Britain withdrew from the EU’s political structures and institutions, but kept its tariff-free arrangements in place. The rights of EU nationals living in the UK were confirmed, and various reciprocal deals on healthcare and the like remained.
During the first 12 months after the vote, Britain confirmed with the various countries that have trade deals with the EU that the same deals would continue. It also used that time to agree much more liberal terms with those states which had run up against EU protectionism, including India, China and Australia. These new treaties came into effect shortly after independence. Britain, like the EFTA countries, now combines global free trade with full participation in EU markets.
Older industries, too, have revived as energy prices have fallen back to global levels: steel, cement, paper, plastics and ceramics producers have become competitive again.
(It should be noted that Patrick Minford, Mrs Thatcher's favourite economist and an ardent Brexiteer, has calculated that practically all Britain's major industry would disappear after Brexit and that he welcomed the prospect.)
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