Further thoughts on the current affliction

How soon can we get back to normal?

The media seem to be whipping up a campaign for a swift return to business as usual, whereas the public, if opinion surveys are to be believed, take the common sense view that it is too early to relax the curbs on travel and assembly. Sky and its imitators must be chafing at the lack of spectator sport from whose broadcasting they derive much of their income. Conventional newspapers bemoan a loss of sales during the current emergency.

It seems to me that a total return to normality will have to wait on the general availability of a vaccine against Covid-19. However, reliable testing kits are just over the horizon. Thus, having ensured that NHS workers are picked up early in their infection and thus one hopes saving their lives, the government can adopt a gradualist approach to the rest of the workforce. Those who have antibodies to the virus and are not shedding live virus particles may be allowed to resume normal duties. There will surely be clusters of such people so we could at least see some small businesses restarting. This seems to me to be a more sensible approach than a "big bang" abolition of all restrictions.

The grim scorecard

While Presidents Trump and Macron, and Prime Minister Johnson, are congratulating themselves on how well they have handled the crisis, they should look at the pages on Our World in Data relating to Covid-19. The rate at which infection rates increased from the date of the first case is particularly sobering.

Then what for me is the most significant figure, the per capita death rate. One may disregard the anomalous figures for Libya (where administration of public services has broken down) and some third-world countries where health services are under stress and data-gathering is hardly a priority.

At the time of writing, on a seven-day rolling average, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Greece, have a death rate of less than one in a million. Why do we not hear much about Taiwan's success? Could it be that, as President Trump suggests, mainland China has too much influence with the World Health Organisation? Why is Greece not celebrated? I suggest that within the EU the contrast with core members  Belgium (26.54), Italy (9.48), Spain (13.91) and France (13.82) is too shaming. In the UK, Greece is a favourite example of eurozone failure; Brexiteers are quiet about Greece now.