Brexiteers are hailing the expansion plans at Nissan's Sunderland plant in Durham and proposed automotive battery factory at Blyth in Northumberland as vindication for leaving the EU. True, thousands of jobs will be created or safeguarded in the north-east of England. However, Brexit has meant the departure or running down of other volume car manufacturers Ford, General Motors, Honda and Mini. Jaguar Land Rover, Toyota and specialist manufacturers like Aston Martin and Morgan remain, though one wonders how Toyota (which has a plant on Deeside) will fare in competition with Nissan in a diminished market. Nissan has clearly taken the view that, even with the European market for mass-produced cars now surrounded by tariff and non-tariff hurdles, it can still make money in Britain now that other major players have departed. Will the job gains in Northumberland and Durham make up for the job losses and silent firings* in Dagenham, Bridgend, Swindon and on Merseyside?
Nissan's resolve was no doubt strengthened by state aid. Perhaps we will find out how much in due course, and how much will be directed to the "gigafactory". Questions remain as to what promises were made to Toyota who withdrew their threat to leave if Brexit went ahead and whether the government is going to have to make extra efforts to have them stay, in the light of the Sunderland announcement.
Meanwhile, City hopes for a speedy conclusion to talks between the Treasury and opposite numbers in the EU have been blighted. Some kind of compromise will eventually be reached because both parties will lose if it is not, and maybe there will be little impact on the Brexiteers' vision for a global future for Britain. However, it would be interesting to hear the views on the situation of Professor Patrick Minford, who at the time of the EU referendum foresaw the atrophy of our manufacturing capacity being at least made up for by the expansion of financial services.
* "Silent firing" refers to the elimination of jobs which would otherwise naturally arise as a workplace progresses through the years, e.g. apprentices and trainees coming in at the bottom as people at the top retire.
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It seems there is some hope for Merseyside. The Ellesmere Port factory, where the Vauxhall Astra was to have been the last model built, may be the site for manufacture of an electric van under the Vauxhall name.
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