Two stories on human rights and inclusiveness in Afghanistan

Research by an American independent think-tank is being widely and partially quoted on the EU news hub (e.g. this from a Spanish MEP). Among other things, it appears to show that 99% of Afghan Muslim are in favour of Sharia, and of those 85% would accept stoning as a punishment for adultery. The research is over four years old, and one wonders how easy it was to obtain a statistically-significant sample in Afghanistan then, in spite of the high standards which PEW Research professes. However, it does suggest that there is a gulf between the public statements of the incoming national Taliban regime and the populist sentiment in the provinces.

The major difference between the Taliban leaders of today and the government ousted by the US twenty years ago is that the "new" Taliban is clearly concerned about how it is seen in the outside world. Its PR has been strengthened and it has been at pains in the last 48 hours to promise inclusive government and not to row back on advances made in the last twenty years, for instance in girls' education. As an insurgent organisation, it had no qualms about financing its operations through opium trafficking, but as a responsible government it has to turn its back on what is not only an international crime but is also anathema to Islam. If the economy is to thrive, legal replacement must be found. Changing agriculture requires investment. So does exploitation of the country's mineral resources, including, it is said, vast quantities of lithium. So far, of Old World nations, China has had a virtual monopoly of the latter which is essential for today's electric vehicle batteries. There are obvious advantages to the West in having a second source for this and other key metals. For all these reasons, one can expect the incoming leaders to yield to the West over human rights in return for access to lucrative markets overseas and support for its farmers at home.

There will be no rush (apart from Pakistan, and Russia and her fellow-travellers) to recognise the new regime. We will need to see deeds match words. Especially, we will need to see the central government come down hard on a reversion to tribal barbarism in the provinces. But we must keep open the non-governmental channels which have been opened under the previous administration, not only the social ones but also the cultural ones. (It is a good sign that senior Taliban figures have taken to cricket!) If the benefits of a more tolerant society and of dialogue with the West have genuinely been taken to heart by a government free of corruption and in touch with its people, then the human sacrifices made by the UK, US and EU nations will have not been totally in vain.