Virtually all Western commentators are agreed, that Putin has for once miscalculated. Instead of using the threat ("the threat is stronger than the execution" - Nimzowitsch) of his overwhelming force to make incremental gains in Ukraine without rousing the West, he thought he could take the whole country in one act of Blitzkrieg. He reckoned without the determination of Ukrainians to defend their nation, nor of the readiness of Western countries to provide weaponry to Ukraine. Now he has a critical decision to make.
There is little doubt that Putin can conquer Ukraine by force. So far he has not involved the whole of the military, nor employed weapons of mass destruction, but he could do. He has put his nuclear offensive on stand-by. There is also the threat of thermobaric weapons which would have practically the same consequences as of nukes: wholesale slaughter of civilians which he has so far avoided. (Though one Putin apologist has posted elsewhere that once a citizen acquires a weapon he is no longer a civilian.)
Putin could - and should - withdraw his strike forces, but that would mean his losing face. My guess is that he will give up on Kyiv but concentrate on consolidating his gains in the south of Ukraine. There will be a stand-off which will be to no side's benefit economically.
Let us hope that at least humanity does prevail over megalomania.
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