Chance for a massive swing?

 

Disgraced Conservative MP Neil Parish has just announced he's going to resign. Until 2010, the opposition to the Tories in Tiverton and Honiton came from the Liberal Democrats. Indeed, it was only after the Clegg calamity, a barely-legal political campaign throughout south-west England by the Tories and a brief flourish by UKIP that Labour took over a distant second place in the constituency.  However, the exposure of the moral turpitude of the current administration may return many borderline conservative voters to the liberal cause. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour is not exciting radical feelings. With Brexit out of the way, no longer an issue, and the economy back in the centre of voters' thoughts I would expect the Liberal Democrat candidate at least to leapfrog Labour and maybe even win, as Helen Morgan did in North Shropshire.

Innovative Chinese EV battery scheme has come to Europe

 Readers of this blog will be aware that Norway has, per head of population, the highest ownership of electric vehicles in the world. It is probably Tesla's largest export market. So it was natural last year for Chinese manufacturer Nio to launch its assault on the European EV market from Norway. Their USP is the way that batteries are paid for and the speedy recharging facility that stems from it.

Nio’s BaaS model means that a customer pays less for the new car but signs up to a monthly subscription model that means they can simply swap batteries when their charge is nearing depletion.

However, in addition to the benefit of simply being able to swap out a depleted battery, Nio also claims that by splitting out a lower purchase price for the vehicle from the battery subscription, the company is nevertheless offering a lower running cost than a combustion engine equivalent.

Nio officially launched its flagship ES8 SUV in Norway back in September, with a starting price of NOK609,000 [(£52,074)] with the 75kWh standard-range battery, and NOK 679,000 [(£58,035)] with the 100kWh long-range battery, which boosts total range to 500-kilometres (WLTP).

By the end of 2022, Nio plans to have built 20 Power Swap stations across the country, covering Norway’s five largest cities and their main roads.

Female hormones as an asthma trigger

 BBC Wales News today drew attention to a distressing aspect of asthma which is still a mystery. The impact of hormones on asthma during the menstrual cycle is not peculiar to Wales, but with the closure of Asthma Cymru a few years ago, the impetus for research here has been reduced. It is also surprising that with so many women engaged in asthma research, more priority has not been given to investigate something that possibly affects half the population of young adult asthma sufferers.

Andrew Tutton

 I have just learned that veteran local politician, Andrew Tutton affectionately known as King Tut, has just died. He was in his seventh contest for his home ward of Port Talbot, where he was first elected as a Ratepayer when the county borough of Neath Port Talbot was inaugurated at the turn of the century. Latterly he campaigned as an Independent. 

My commiserations and sympathy to his family and friends.

 

Hardly unreserved apologies

It is gratifying to see that the i had the same reaction to prime minister Johnson's so-called "unreserved apology". The same goes for Rishi Sunak's misuse of the term when he also sought to justify his behaviour during "partygate".

As to his weak justification for staying in post ("don't you know there's a war on"), various media have been swift to point out that PMs have been changed before in conflicts moreover in which we have been directly engaged. It is not as if he had been effective in stopping the carnage in Ukraine. Indeed, his failure over his first two years in office to stop Putin's pet oligarchs making free use of the City of London "laundromat" helped fund Putin's war. 

Is it too much to hope that the rank-and-file of the Conservative party in Westminster will rise up to do their patriotic duty and install a person of honour in No. 10?

Does Putin really want to see himself ranked with Hitler and Genghis Khan?

 Bloomberg reports:

Ukraine and Russia together account for about a quarter of the world’s grain trade, and disruption to shipments from the Black Sea region is bringing turmoil to the global market.

With the price of corn at a decade high and wheat soaring, the United Nations has warned an additional 13 million people could be left undernourished. Drought-affected countries across the Horn of Africa are likely to be the hardest hit, the World Food Programme says.

The threat to the remaining Black Sea ports from which grain is exported, and the grain stores in those cities, is very real. By continuing his destructive attrition of Ukraine, Putin is jeopardising the lives of people far away who have no part in his quarrel with the West.

Having laid waste Mariupol, he is resisting entreaties from humanitarian organisations around the world to allow the few thousand remaining citizens and defending soldiers to be evacuated. He is demanding their total surrender, with no guarantees as to how they will be treated in Russian custody. One trusts that Lavrov reflects the official policy when he asserts that Russia will use only conventional weapons in her renewed offensive against Ukraine. That should rule out not only nuclear, chemical and biological weapons but also the use of thermobaric weapons which would visit excruciating death on those sheltering in the tunnels beneath the old steel works in Mariupol. 

Buy an electric van and save 25% on running costs

That is the recent claim of an environmental group. It may well be true, but one has to take into account the higher capital cost of a new electric van. There is also the difficulty of the dearth of public charging stations as Peter Black has highlighted many times, most recently here and here.

A Radio 4 programme aimed at debunking excessive claims by advertisers looked at the cost of replacing a conventional car mid-life with its electric equivalent (a Vauxhall Corsa was the chosen example) as against waiting until the vehicle was no longer viable. They found that the latter course cost less, but still found that the pay-back time was 11 years. 

That pay-back time may be less in the case of a commercial vehicle which does many more miles than the average family car, but we are still expecting a degree of altruism on the part of operators in asking them to make the switch. Government needs to do more to ensure that there is a dense network of charging stations and in keeping the cost of electricity supply down. Only then will pioneering companies like Stevens of Port Talbot take off, as they deserve to do.

Salter the earth (sorry!)

 From a Glamorgan CCC bulletin:

By completing a career-best 7-45 against Durham at Cardiff, Andrew Salter returned the best bowling figures by a spin bowler for Glamorgan for thirty years, with his analysis being the best since 1992 when Robert Croft claimed 8-66 against Warwickshire at Swansea. (writes Andrew Hignell) [I was there! - FHL}

Andrew’s figures were also the best for the Welsh county in first-class cricket since Timm van Gugten claimed 7-42 at the same ground against Kent in 2018, and the best by a homegrown bowler since David Harrison also claimed 7-45 against Worcestershire at New Road in 2010.

His spell included a sequence of 6-22 in 27 balls and when he bowled Matthew Potts it was Andrew’s 100th first-class wicket for the Welsh county.

Will the England selectors take notice? Andrew Salter is also a useful batsman. Batting is clearly the department of England's game which needs urgent attention.

Once more unto the breach

 I have been persuaded that I still have something to contribute to local politics, so I am standing again for the county borough council and the local town (community) council. Any campaign messages will be confined to franklittle.mycouncillor.org.uk, but would add that anyone who wants to help with distribution of leaflets should get in touch with Robert Francis of Bryncoch (details on Facebook).

2021 By-elections: Greens and Lib Dems the big winners

An overall picture of principal local authority by-elections in 2021

[Thanks to ALDC for the graphic]

A net gain of 12 wards is an encouraging statistic for Lib Dems going in to May's local elections in England and Wales. On the other hand, the figures must be worrying for Labour, who showed a net loss two years into a parliament when, traditionally, opposition parties make gains. 

Even more worrying is that, in spite of their overall losses, the Conservatives continue to win wards, especially at the expense of Labour as in yesterday's result in High Peak.

 

An energy strategy at long last

Opposition critics of the paper published today are correct in pointing out that it does not address the current power emergency, but that misses the point. This is a strategy for the future and if it had been adopted a generation ago, the UK would not today be in thrall to the international market for fossil fuels, with the resultant kick to inflation every time there is a major international conflict. Indeed, with the astonishing rise in viability of wind generation and even of photo-voltaic arrays, we would probably be generating entirely carbon-free electricity 365 days of the year by now if previous governments had built on the lead we had in nuclear power generation. 

The strategy has its faults. Is there really a need for another quango ("Great British Nuclear") in an arena which has had more than enough of them? Why do China and France (Hinkley Point and Sizewell) still bulk large in the government's plans?

On the positive side, there is now a determination to clear up the commercial/political mess at Wylfa and actually make progress there, to the benefit of employment on Ynys Môn. There is approval for Rolls-Royce's Small Modular Reactor programme. 

On balance, this is a positive proposal. If it is pursued resolutely by this and succeeding governments, it should make sure that we can avoid the next international energy crisis. And there surely will be one.

Glamorgan's first home match of the season

 Wouldn't you know it? The weather in Cardiff is forecast to be blowy, with "bright intervals". Details of the county championship match against Durham are here.

Good luck to David Lloyd in his first match as captain. The committee has kept faith in him, even though the stats from his early seasons as a county all-rounder were not inspiring. His improvement has been steady, though, and he clearly has leadership qualities. He relieves Chris Cooke who will be able to concentrate on his wicket-keeping and his attractive batting, which his responsibilities as captain must have inhibited.

Turkey going green

 Yesterday's blog post drew attention to a stable democracy which is also an ecological paragon. The two things do not always go together. Last week revealed developments in the elective dictatorship of Turkey:

The World Bank has approved a loan of $341 million (€306m) as part of a project to support Turkey's agricultural sector and encourage the use of 'climate-smart technologies'.

The project aims to improve collection and use of information on 14 million hectares of soil and land, enhance disease surveillance in animals and help reduce carbon emissions, according to the World Bank.

Agricultural expansion in Turkey is creating significant environmental and climate pressure due to the inefficient use of land, water and energy, while accounting for more than 13 per cent of Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions.

"We hope this partnership will contribute to putting the agriculture sector on a more competitive and sustainable growth path and help Turkey achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2053," says Auguste Kouame, World Bank Country Director for Turkey.

Warning signs in Costa Rica

Reuter reports a political shake-up in Costa Rica, the most stable and democratic nation in Central America and an environmental exemplar. The main cause appears to be the inevitable one of rising prices, though the perception of corruption has played a part.

The new man Chaves does not have an unblemished reputation. He was accused of sexual harassment while at the World Bank. It is also worrying that he proposes to use referendums to legitimise policy changes, bypassing the country's parliament. His predecessors in this are Napoleon and Hitler.

Bad news from Hungary

 The Fidesz Party of the unapologetically illiberal, racist and Putin-supporting Viktor Orban is practically certain to remain in power in Hungary as a result of yesterday's general election. It looks as if there will be another four years of disruption of the EU from Prague and of help for Putin in his quest to restore the Russian empire.

Slightly better news was that, although a government proposition to restrict LGBTQ rights received majority support in a referendum also held yesterday, the number of people voting did not reach the necessary threshold to make it binding.

A national bus network needs careful thought

 My immediate reaction to the broadcast news item that the Welsh government was planning a virtual nationalisation of bus services in Wales was that resources would naturally flow to the area where government was based, Cardiff Bay.

I was somewhat relieved to see that the sponsor of the White Paper is Lee Waters MS, who has a consistent record of supporting public transport, not to mention cycling. This was even after joining the Labour party, which has not been a prominent supporter of matters green in the past. 

There are certainly advantages in having a consistent ticketing system across Wales and certainly in ensuring that connecting services mesh. However, the small print needs study.

There is also the danger of a doctrinaire Conservative government in Westminster being obstructive. Will they allow amendments to the Competition Act? One recalls Mrs Thatcher breaking up the previous model of semi-commercial long distance bus and coach combined with municipal and commercial local services. This worked well in my experience and Wales will do well to better it.