Tiverton and Honiton: those Tory excuses

 The scale of yesterday's by-election win needs emphasising. These are the detailed figures, as reported by Devon Live:

04:20KEY EVENT

How Tiverton and Honiton voted - results in full

Full results of Tiverton and Honiton by-election.

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservatives.

Richard Foord (LD) 22,537 (52.91%, +38.14%)

Helen Hurford (C) 16,393 (38.49%, -21.72%)

Liz Pole (Lab) 1,562 (3.67%, -15.88%)

Gill Westcott (Green) 1,064 (2.50%, -1.34%)

Andy Foan (Reform) 481 (1.13%)

Ben Walker (UKIP) 241 (0.57%, -1.06%)

Jordan Donoghue-Morgan (Heritage) 167 (0.39%)

Frankie Rufolo (FB) 146 (0.34%)

LD maj 6,144 (14.43%)

29.93% swing C to LD

Electorate 81,661; Turnout 42,591 (52.16%, -19.71%)

2019: C maj 24,239 (40.66%) – Turnout 59,613 (71.86%)
Parish (C) 35,893 (60.21%); Pole (Lab) 11,654 (19.55%); Timperley (LD) 8,807 (14.77%); Reed (Green) 2,291 (3.84%); Dennis (UKIP) 968 (1.62%)

"This is just mid-term blues"

The scale of the reversal is extraordinary, far beyond the normal swing against an incumbent government. Moreover, the size of the turnout suggests that the Lib Dems win was achieved not just by Conservative voters staying at home, but by many actively switching their vote. 

"The Lib Dems have a fantastic by-election machine which will not be there for a general election"

True, but we know from workers on the ground that the Tories also threw all their resources into this campaign, knowing how significant this particular contest was. They will be unable to replicate this at a general election either, especially as funding will dwindle. Tories will be seen as losers, and business does not like to back losers. Their Russian oligarch chums may stay loyal, of course, but will their grubby money be sufficient?

Perhaps this particular constituency may revert to Conservative hands at a general election. But look where it is situated. The south-west of England is a traditional Liberal stronghold. The Conservative gains in 2015 on the back of a dubious disinformation campaign from 2010 onwards will, on the evidence of the Tiverton and Honiton reversal, be seen as an anomaly and a whole slew of Cornish and Devon seats will come back to the Liberal Democrat fold.

(Labour can expect a complementary swing back in the "Red Wall" seats, of which Wakefield was one. The Tories won these on a specious promise to stop immigration. It is clear that traditional working-class voters have looked at the post-2019 evidence that nothing has changed in that respect and are returning to the fold.) 

"In 1991 we lost two by-elections on the same day but went on to win the 1992 general election"

But it took a change of leader from the divisive Margaret Thatcher to the apparently affable and trustworthy John Major to achieve this. Is the Nasty Party of today ready to make a similar shift? Is there an untainted leader in waiting?

On a slightly mischievous note . . .

The election of a male Lib Dem breaks the trend of recent by-election successes and helps to redress the gender balance in the parliamentary party.  Ed Davey, Alistair Carmichael, Tim Farron and Jamie Stone need feel less laagered by the sisterhood. 

And, of course, "just for a bit of fun" as Peter Snow would say, I just had to feed the Tiverton and Honiton percentages into an electoral forecasting engine. On this basis, at a general election Lib Dems with 406 seats would have no trouble forming a government with the Conservatives on 222 forming the opposition and the rest practically nowhere. One can dream!