To the last, Johnson shows contempt for the truth - and parliament

 It was typical of the man to deliver his farewell speech to the media in the theatrical setting of Downing Street rather than to the House of Commons where his statement could be questioned. He did later fulfil a requirement to show up at prime minister's question time and to propose a motion of confidence, but Speaker Hoyle has constantly criticised Johnson for his contempt of parliament and has followed up with a threatened reference to the Committee of Privileges.

That motion of confidence in his government was probably put down in order to forestall motions of no-confidence proposed by both Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey. As I write this, opinion surveys of Conservative party members point to Liz Truss being elected to succeed Johnson. Leaks, either from the Johnson camp or the Truss camp or both suggest that Johnson will be a minister in a Truss cabinet, so that the next administration will be a Johnson continuation government in all but name. What follows was intended to be an obituary of Johnsonism but now looks to be part of a running commentary. 

It is a pity that the leaders of both the Labour party and Lib Dems chose to concentrate their attack on the government's record on the cost and quality of living. Ian Blackford for the SNP spoke of the PM's quality of character (or lack of it) and of course the benefits of Scottish independence. The politics of these lines of attack is understandable. When they are relayed on broadcast bulletins or in the press, they reinforce the concerns of many people, including a rising number of the middle classes who used to provide the bedrock of Conservative support. However, these messages are constantly being put out independently of parliament. The Commons should be a place of debate, where ideas are examined, arguments are put to the test. Johnson's assertions were largely uncontested. The fact that he slunk out of the Chamber before the bulk of the debate does not matter. Enough of his supporters were there to hear counter-arguments and dispute them if they could, and of course there is a record in Hansard. As it is, too much of what he has claimed is assumed to be the truth because it has not been contradicted, except in the inside pages of The Guardian, i and high-end monthlies. Oh, and Private Eye, of course.

We do have to accept one of his claims. As a result of his election victory of 2019, UK achieved the hardest possible Brexit. He drove the European Medicines Agency out of London back to the continent. Passport checks were reintroduced between the UK and the rest of Europe. That was all supposed to be a Good Thing. Drivers and owners of trucks queuing at UK ports may beg to differ. (Families hoping for a swift channel crossing and a continental holiday are no doubt regarded as Remainer Traitors who deserve all they get.) 

To be continued.

Man who blew the whistle on Putin's oligarchs said to be in mortal danger

 ICIJ reports:

The source behind the Panama Papers leak still fears for his and his family’s safety, six years after the global investigation rocked the world of offshore finance.

Speaking with German reporters Bastian Obermayer and Frederik Obermaier in his first interview since 2016, the source, who calls himself John Doe, cited the murders of investigative journalists Daphne Caruana Galizia and Jan Kuciak and said he still feared retribution for his part in exposing the financial secrets of some of the world’s most powerful and dangerous people.

“It’s a risk that I live with, given that the Russian government has expressed the fact that it wants me dead,” he said in the interview, conducted for German news outlet DER SPIEGEL.

John Doe said he was motivated to speak out by a growing sense of “instability” in the world, and from disappointment that more hasn’t been done to clamp down on a secretive financial system that props up autocrats and enables people like Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch a war in Ukraine with little accountability.

“Putin is more of a threat to the United States than Hitler ever was, and shell companies are his best friend,” he said. “Shell companies funding the Russian military are what kill innocent civilians in Ukraine as Putin’s missiles target shopping centers.”

[...]

What became known as the Panama Papers was published in April 2016, and quickly became the most talked-about story in the world. Investigations from more than 100 media outlets exposed the secret offshore dealings of 140 politicians, as well as a bevy of celebrities, criminals and more, including some of Putin’s closest allies.

[...]

“I am astounded with the outcome of the Panama Papers. What ICIJ accomplished was unprecedented, and I am extremely pleased, and even proud, that major reforms have taken place as a result of the Panama Papers,” John Doe told DER SPIEGEL.

“The fact that there have been subsequent journalistic collaborations of similar scale is also a real triumph. Sadly, it is still not enough. I never thought that releasing one law firm’s data would solve global corruption full stop, let alone change human nature. Politicians must act.”

Blogging may be light ...

 ... for the next few days because of various family birthday celebrations, some of which were delayed by Covid-19.

Did Franklin meet Lavoisier?

Before the French Revolution, Benjamin Franklin was engaged in a charm offensive in Paris on behalf of the newly-formed administration in Philadelphia. His fellow rebel colonists needed money, trade and logistical support from France.in order to sustain the new Union's independence. Indeed, so successful was ambassador Franklin at winning donations from Louis XVI that the impact on the French treasury may well have contributed to the events of 1789. So much I recall from Ken Burns' detailed two-part TV documentary shown here on PBS America.

It was clear from that documentary that Franklin took advantage of his position in order to participate fully in the social and intellectual life of France. It is surprising that in that time he had so little contact with Antoine Lavoisier, pioneer chemist, who was later to be executed as a member of minor nobility and as a landlord. Though they would not describe themselves as scientists (the term did not emerge in English until 1834), they were among the most prominent executants of the scientific method which was emerging at the end of the 18th century. 

Lavoisier was a member of a royal commission investigating the methods of Franz Mesmer. The commission was nominally headed by Franklin but by 1784, when the commission reported, he was already suffering from what are now termed "mobility problems" and had little day-to-day involvement in the commission's investigations. 

Franklin and Lavoisier did collaborate through the mail on two or three developments, most importantly from Franklin's point of view the optimum composition of gunpowder and its production. They had intermediaries, but it seems never had a freewheeling face-to-face discussion. How fascinating that would have been!

Some hope in Bangladesh

Bloomberg reports:

Workers gather in the morning at a boat terminal, waiting to cross the Mongla river, in Mongla, Bangladesh, March 3, 2022. This Bangladeshi town, located near the world’s largest mangrove forest Sundarbans, stands alone to offer new life to thousands of climate migrants. The town was once vulnerable to floods and river erosion. Now it has become more resilient with improved infrastructure and special economic zones to support climate migrants.

 

GIG nurses' pay

 The proposed pay settlement for nurses in Wales is rather better than the immediate media reports implied. It is in line with the NHS Pay Review Body recommendation, which is what the Welsh government committed itself to, but additional to a top-up announced in April. The official government statement also points out that:

The starting salary for the lowest paid roles in band 1 and the bottom of band 2 in NHS Wales will now be £20,758, this equates to a pay rise of 10.8% this financial year for this band and would make Wales the highest paying UK nation for the lowest pay bands in the NHS. [my emphasis - FHL]

I have in the past pointed out the disparity between Welsh nurses' pay and that of the other home nations, in a country where, because of the industrial past and income differences, health is of more concern. It is good to see that this has been addressed. What now needs to be tackled is the loss of experienced nurses at the top end of the pay scales. 

Trussism is UK subsidiary of Trumpism

 The DeSmog pressure group points out links between Liz Truss and fossil-fuel advocates:

The current favourite to replace UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has defended her plans to slash taxes by citing an economist from a think-tank with ties to the country’s main climate science denial group.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss referenced a Daily Express article [by Cardiff University's] Patrick Minford, a free-market economist who is best known for his dubious 2017 claim that a no-deal Brexit would boost the UK economy by £135 billion per year. 

Minford is a fellow at the Centre for Brexit Policy (CBP), a think-tank in which several figures also hold key roles in the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF).

He also led the now defunct pressure group Economists for Free Trade (EFT), which was convened by US shale gas millionaire Edgar Miller, one of the few known funders of the GWPF.

This reference by Truss is the latest example of the Foundation’s influence in the Tory leadership contest, which comes amid a record-breaking heatwave that has pushed climate change up the political agenda. 

Truss – who is currently polling ahead of former chancellor Rishi Sunak in the premiership race – has claimed she supports the UK’s 2050 net zero target. 

However, she has a record of working with free-market think-tanks that are opposed to government action on climate change, and has vowed to overturn the UK’s ban on fracking for shale gas. Steve Baker, an influential backbench MP and GWPF trustee who leads an anti-green faction in parliament, is backing Truss’s bid for leader. 

At the same time, she seeks to distance herself from Minford's prediction that UK interest rates will have to rise to 7%. 

Another plank of her campaign is to scrap all law introduced as a result of EU membership. So not only would virtually all environmental protection vanish, but also many civil and employment rights, as the Guardian explains. We would return to key workers, including junior doctors, being forced to work unlimited overtime but also to age discrimination. (A ban on ageism in recruitment was forced on a reluctant Blair-Brown administration in 2006.) There are those who assert that the common law, to which we would revert if the Acts in question were repealed, provides protection, but that would be uncertain and expensive as barristers competed in finding relevant case law.

Conservative members have to ask themselves whether they really want to introduce a regime more akin to that of Trump or Brazil's Bolsonaro than traditional Conservatism.

How would Carice have felt?

 Following on from the earlier post about Sir Edward Elgar's views on younger composers, one wonders what his daughter Carice would have felt. Would she have embraced the music of her own generation or followed the taste of her father? One suspects the latter, because she seems to have been devoted to her father, acting as hostess for him in place of her mother when Lady Elgar withdrew because of ill-health. 

Altogether, there is tantalisingly little, on the Web at least, about the life of Carice Elgar. Comfortably off as she must have been as the only daughter of a successful composer, and a linguist like her mother, she must have enjoyed travelling. She kept extensive diaries which are now in the care of Birmingham University Library but nobody has seen fit to draw even a short biography based on them.

Another key woman of music I have often wondered about was Isobel, wife of Gustav Holst and mother of Imogen, about whom a lot more is known, thanks to her work for Benjamin Britten. There was a hint that Isobel was attractive, from a reported remark about Imogen by a neighbour in Cheltenham, that she took after her father, poor dear. The publicity for Philippa Tudor's biography, published earlier this year, and a single photograph reproduced in the BBC2 programme on the friendship and collaboration of Holst and Vaughan Williams confirm the impression. Needless to say, the book is now on order.

Tata Steel makes a good case

 From BBC News:

Tata Group wants to reach a deal for the UK government to provide £1.5bn towards this, the Financial Times says. [...]

 Speaking to the FT, Tata Group chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran said: "A transition to a greener steel plant is the intention that we have . . . But this is only possible with financial help from the government. 

 "We have been in discussions over the last two years and we should come to an agreement within 12 months. Without this, we will have to look at closures of sites." 

 The report says Tata wants to close two blast furnaces at Port Talbot and build two electric arc furnaces, that will be less carbon intensive. However, the FT adds this process will cost about £3bn, with Tata seeking £1.5bn from the UK government.

In addition, Tata has pledged to produce steel using hydrogen within a generation at its Dutch plant. Surely this is an aspiration which the UK government should be matching? The world is always going to need steel. The UK, and Wales in particular, should be in the vanguard of producing it in the most sustainable way, just as we were in the vanguard of the Industrial Revolution.

Courts pressed to impose sentences which hurt over water pollution

 EA, the official environmental watchdog, has responded strongly to the string of pollution incidents laid at the door of water and sewage companies. As Politics Home reports, EA chair Emma Howard Boyd calls for the courts to use the full extent of their powers to punish the transgressors.

Four companies, including Thames Water, Anglian Water and Wessex and Yorkshire Water, were all rated two stars, meaning they have been deemed in need of significant improvement, while two, South West Water and Southern Water were given the lowest possible rating.

Emma Howard Boyd, chair of the Environment Agency, said they planned to make it "too painful" for offending firms to continue as they called for higher fines, jail sentences and the threat of directors being struck off if they are responsible for serious environmental damage.

Is it too much to hope that when Rishi Sunak and Elizabeth Truss parade up and down the kingdom their credentials to become leader of their party and thence prime minister, that they are asked whether they agree with tougher action against polluters? Conservative party members must be as appalled as the rest of us at the despoliation of our rivers. Indeed, those in the shires may have been directly affected. They should take the opportunity to make their feelings known.

Government not to ban video game loot boxes

Jolyon Jenkins' Radio 4 series left me with the strong impression that the loot box concept in video games tended to encourage vulnerable youngsters to gamble beyond their means and that there were shady characters behind the most exploitative games. So I was rather concerned when I read that the government did not intend to ban their use. 

PC Gamer sets out the culture minister's thinking:

The UK Government has issued a formal response to its 2020 call for evidence on loot boxes in videogames. In short: The UK's Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) doesn't think the government should regulate loot boxes in videogames at this time, rather that the games industry should be encouraged to self-regulate in order to avoid the necessity of legislative action. 

This means loot boxes won't fall under review of the UK's sweeping Gambling Act. However, some hard guidelines that represent the government's view are included: Loot box purchase should be unavailable to all children and young people unless enabled by a guardian, all players should have access to spending controls and transparent information, and the industry should give researchers improved access to data in order to gather better evidence and research to inform future policy.

"Our view is that it would be premature to take legislative action without first pursuing enhanced industry-led measures to deliver protections for children and young people and all players," said DCMS Secretary of State, the Rt. Hon. Nadine Dorries, MP, in her foreword to the report.

Antisemitism and Islamophobia weaponised

 The Forde report into antisemitism in the Labour party, finally released after a two-year delay, confirms what many outside observers gathered. As the Guardian summarised this week:

Destructive infighting in Labour under Jeremy Corbyn meant antisemitism was often used as a “factional weapon” by his critics and denied by his supporters, a damning report into the party’s culture has found.

The Forde report details “toxicity on both sides of the relationship” between Corbyn’s office and Labour headquarters, which seriously hampered the party’s ability to fight elections.

It also lays bare how senior Labour staff displayed “deplorably factional and insensitive, and at times discriminatory, attitudes”.

It seems to me that the party is still suffering from the heavy-handed strategy of leader Sir Keir Starmer, who may well have driven out valued activists from the Muslim community who were by no measure racist. But it is to the party's credit that it commissioned this report. One wonders if the Conservative party would ever dare carry out the same introspection.

What would Sir Edward have said?

 Hearing Andrew Davies' dramatic delivery of  Vaughan Williams' 4th symphony in this evening's Prom, I was reminded of a question that had been lurking in the back of my mind for some time: what did Sir Edward Elgar make of the younger composers emerging in his wake? He certainly would not have liked the fourth, which shocked even many VW devotees at the symphony's first performance . Fortunately, Sir Edward had died in the year before . Incidentally, it is good to see it taking its place in the repertoire after so many years of comparative neglect. It is now able to be viewed objectively.

As it happens, the question posed above was answered in a talk in the interval of last Saturday's Prom. The answer was: not much. Indeed, the only new music on disc which the elderly composer rushed out to by was that of Eric Coates. However, he did make an exception in the case of Coleridge Taylor. Perhaps he recognised both men as outsiders, as he had been. 

People-traffickers continue to thrive

 Surely even fellow-ministers did not believe Priti Patel when she said that deporting refugees to Rwanda would deter the men who profit from human misery. The boats continue to come, as the Home Affairs select committee has confirmed. Only direct action can stop the traffickers, but the government does not have the resources to take it.

St Helen's being readied for development?

For whatever reason, Labour-controlled Swansea City Council has shown no great enthusiasm for maintaining the rugby and cricket ground. Perhaps there is some resentment as seeing games for toffs Or the fact that councillors in the ward in which the ground lies are not members of the ruling group.

 The last time I was at the St Helen's ground for a cricket match, the toilet facilities for non-members needed  bringing up to the standards of the late 20th century, never mind the 21st. But I have never had trouble finding a variety of food and drink, especially on popular match days, and access for people with disabilities has always seemed easy from the rugby ground side. The desire of big-hitting batsmen to attack the Mumbles Road has clearly increased (I blame the IPL), but that can be mitigated by extra fencing.

However, a member of the Labour cabinet running Swansea City seems to feel that those factors and more would prevent county cricket coming back to St Helen's. The Evening Post quotes the councillor as listing work that "would be required to meet new England and Wales Cricket Board regulations [...] toilet provision, disabled access facilities and viewing platforms, a diverse food and drink offer, family facilities, multi-faith quiet space, umpire and staff changing and dining facilities, medical facilities, and control room and security upgrades".

Much of that seems appropriate to international stadiums rather than run-of-the-mill county venues. I would be interested to know how many grounds meet them. They have not stopped Neath's Gnoll bagging two Royal London matches in August this year. The councillor seems to be confusing the requirements for first-class cricket, such as the county championship, with other county competitions like the one-day cups, which are not first-class.

"Dwindling spectator numbers" were also cited. This is a vague assertion which needs backing up with dates. Covid-19 would account for the last two years. County championship matches all over lose support, sadly. On the other hand, a few 1-day matches in the holiday season would surely attract a crowd and sponsors.

It would be a sad day if the city of Don Shepherd, Simon Jones and Robert Croft were to lose its only major cricket ground. Developers, on the other hand, would be salivating at the possibility of a prime seaside location coming on the market.

Heat Hayes

 Sir John Hayes reckoned on Radio 4's PM programme today that the Met. Offices heat warnings were overdone because we old people had been through the war and the rest of the population knew how to deal with the heat from their exposure to tropical climes on their annual holidays. So that's all right then, and nobody is going to die of heatstroke - I don't think.

 -

Odds on Penny Mordaunt to be our third female Prime Minister

 The top two candidates for the leadership of the Conservative party after all the winnowing by MPs are likely to be Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, and Penny Mordaunt, darling of the defence establishment. Her ultra-Conservative views, including those which he has volunteered on gender transition, are likely to endear her to, rather than repel, the reactionary party membership. It should also be remembered that she was second only in her party to Boris Johnson in retailing blatant lies about the EU during the Brexit campaign. Since the aforementioned membership appeared to revel in Johnson's lying, it must be supposed that they would endorse his apprentice in the field.

London, beware the heat

 The Meteorological  Office predicts that temperatures will rise, possibly to record levels, in south-east England at the beginning of next week. There is obviously a risk to those of us whose temperature regulation deteriorates with age. So one trusts that Londoners will look out for elderly neighbours when the heatwave strikes. However, there is another threat, that of public disorder which often occurs during unbearably hot weather. Met. Police should recall that the Tottenham Riots broke out during a heatwave.

Mutatis mutandis

 The UK's finances plunged because of a world-wide crisis in the face of which the government was powerless. Consequently, social service budgets and benefits had to be constrained and real-term pay cuts for government employees. That was the story in 2009 and it was not believed by opposition parties nor by the Daily Mail, Sun and Telegraph.

Fast forward a decade and a government of a different hue spins the same tale. For "global financial crisis" read "global pandemic". Unsurprisingly, the Conservative-supporting Mail, Sun and Telegraph believe the government this time.

In 2008 and 2009, chancellor Darling valiantly started to mend the hole in government finances left by his predecessor. By contrast, in 2022 all but one of the pretenders to the Tory throne promise to cut personal taxation, thus increasing our indebtedness at a time of rising interest rates. Their theory is that this will stimulate growth in the economy, actually increasing the tax take. Never mind the inflation, which will force the Bank of England to put up interest rates yet again. What the ten hungry men and women don't say is what will happen when the increase in income does not occur. But we know from history: social service budgets and benefits will be constrained and there will be real-term pay cuts for government employees.

All the MPs who have announced their intention to contest the leadership are complicit in the Johnson administration's corruption and hypocrisy. All of them have gamed the system to a greater or lesser extent for their personal financial benefit. However, at least Rishi Sunak has had the courage to stick to a programme of financial responsibility. If he becomes prime minister, I would expect his government to honour his pledge to restore the triple lock on state pensions. I would not put the same trust in most of his rivals.

Is no news good news on the ex-pats in Ukraine?

 There seems to have been a news blackout on the fate of the ex-pats who joined the Ukrainian army and of the aid workers who have all been sentenced to death by a kangaroo court set up by Russian proxies. One can only hope that Putin sees no advantage in executing these men. This calculation is the best one can hope for. After all, he had no hesitation in shooting down a civilian airliner with families as well as health experts on board. 

Maybe the aid workers will be quietly released and expelled. The Russians are unlikely to release the soldiers to fight again, though. One guess is that they will be interned in the same Gulag as the Ukrainian civilians expatriated by the invaders, not to be released until the conflict is settled.

A good buzz from Palestine

 There are occasional flashes of good news from Palestine. One such is the success of the amateur beekeepers there. Since this Times of Israel article was published, Al-Jazeera has reported that  honey production has now reached commercial viability.

Another ministerial mushroom

You may know the description of a certain style of management as "mushroom farming": keeping the erks in the dark and feeding them with (let's be polite) manure.  I almost felt sorry for junior minister Vicky Ford the other day when she had been sent out to bat for the PM with a brief that was factually incorrect. Johnson had revealed the day before that, while Foreign Secretary and at the time of the Salisbury poisonings, he had had a private meeting with Alexander Lebedev a former (and maybe still) agent of the Russian state. The Opposition had tabled an Urgent Question on the subject and relentlessly attacked Ms Ford, exposing the weakness of the government's defence.

I understand that a major reason for the resignations of Welsh Office minister Simon Hart and Children's minister Will Quince was that they had been sent abroad to lie for the prime minister, and were shocked to discover what they had unwittingly done. It would be unsurprising if Vicky Ford has also resigned.

More on Welsh Lib Dems and the Senedd expansion

 This is the text of an emergency motion passed today at the Welsh Lib Dems' "spring" (well, you know what Covid-19 does) conference:

Conference notes:

1. Proposals for reform of the Senedd and elections to the Senedd ahead of the 2027 Welsh General Election, including:
   1. Increasing the number of Senedd Members to 96.
   2. Electing MSs using the Closed List D’Hondt Method.
   3. Pairing new Westminster Constituency boundaries to form 16 multimember Senedd constituencies to be later reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales.
2. The work of the 2017 Expert Panel on Senedd reform.
3. Welsh Lib Dem proposals to expand the Senedd and for democratic reform in the 2014 Policy Paper Paying Down the Democratic Deficit

Conference believes:

1. That the current Senedd is ill-equipped to properly scrutinise government, generate innovative ideas, and meet the growing demands on legislative time arising from Brexit and the UK Government’s assault on devolution.
2. That the electoral system should give voters meaningful choice, and should be fair and proportional ensuring that seats match the number of votes cast for a party.
3. That the link between representatives and their constituents is crucial, which is why constituencies should be based on natural communities.
4. That the proposals brought forward by Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru fail to meet these principles.

Conference calls on the Welsh Liberal Democrats to:

1. Support increasing the number of MSs to 96.
2. Work with others to bring forward amendments to elect MSs by STV.
3. Work with others to bring forward amendments to form multimember constituencies based on Local Authority boundaries.

I was relieved on one score. Early reports suggested that our leader, Jane Dodds, had accepted the full package without consultation. Instead, her motion revealed that she fully takes on board the party's preference for a fair voting method. Single Transferable Vote allows electors to vote for people individually, not an indiscriminate list selected by party bosses. It must also be sensible to base electoral districts on what the Welsh Government controls, not depend on the whims of Westminster. (With the imminent change of UK administration, constituency boundary changes may be up in the air again.)

There is a chance that Plaid Cymru may have second thoughts about endorsing party lists. Their manifestos routinely advocate STV for filling both House of Commons and Senedd seats and there may be pressure from their membership to stand fast on this principle. Jane, in introducing the subject this morning, said words to the effect that the proposals were not set in stone and it will be many months before the substantive Bill is brought before the Senedd. There is time for further negotiation.

On the other hand, Jane indicated that the number of 96 is non-negotiable. We either expand to 96 members or we do not expand at all. I have already set out my objections to this, objections which were brought into focus at Welsh questions in the Commons this week. Junior minister at the Welsh Office David TC Davies made plain that their main line of attack on Welsh Labour will be the increased cost of politicians. It may be the only card which Welsh Conservatives can play in future elections, but it will be a strong one. I really do trust that ordinary voters get the message through to all the parties who support expansion that this is too big a number - by at least a dozen, in my view.

For the reason set out in the last paragraph, I abstained on this motion. I did not want to vote against expansion, or the advocacy of STV and sensible boundaries, but I objected to the motion not being presented on the substantive agenda, giving time for parties to submit reasoned amendments. One hopes that the "top table" will bring this back with time for a proper debate at the autumn conference. 

At the same time, the separate proposition that "zipping" to provide sex balance to electoral lists should be discussed. It is sad that the Welsh electorate still has to be directed to return a Senedd which is not dominated by middle-aged white males. In the UK parliament, there is a preponderance of women in the Liberal Democrat party. Here, zipping would have had the deleterious effect of preventing the election of some exceptional members because they were women. I would also point out that at one time the Liberal Democrat contingent in Cardiff Bay consisted of one male AM (as they were designated then) and five women. 

Reckless civil service cuts

 Earlier this year, Jacob Rees Mogg announced draconian cuts in the civil service head-count. As Civil Service World pointed out, much of the increase in recent years has been necessary because work which is carried out in Brussels on behalf of all EU nations has had to be duplicated in London because of Brexit. One would expect many jobs necessary for the transition to an isolationist position to become redundant. However, it has become clear that Mogg is intent a crude cull across all Deparments.

What this means in practice is shown by the increasing delays at the Passport Office. These have become so serious that even on a day when the threats to Boris Johnson's office were reaching a crisis, questions to the Welsh Secretary were predominantly about the obstacles to travel for business or vacation that they presented.

Crude, untargeted forced redundancies do more harm than good, though they may garner approving headlines in the Daily Mail. It is to be hoped that the "caretaker" takes a more sensible look at civil service tasks and morale.

Richard Foord's long view

 The new MP for Tiverton and Honiton concluded his maiden speech in the Commons yesterday:

Every time I walk up the staircase to my office here, I find myself eyeballed by a bust of the former Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister, Lord Palmerston. Palmerston was the MP for Tiverton for 30 years, and he went on a journey—one recently experienced by a few of my constituents at last month’s by-election. He started out a Conservative but later became a Liberal. I honestly think that is what we are hearing across the country: a groundswell of opinion from people who feel taken for granted. Just yesterday, we saw two senior members of the Cabinet quit, citing a lack of integrity, and I think that it is time for those remaining members of the Cabinet to heed the message from voters in Tiverton and Honiton at our by-election last month and show the Prime Minister the door.

Lord Palmerston was also Prime Minister, at the end of the Crimean war. He spoke about Russian foreign policy in this place 160 years ago:

“The policy and practice of the Russian Government in regard to Turkey and Persia has always been to push forward its encroachments as fast and as far as the apathy or want of firmness of other Governments would allow it to go but always to stop and retire when it has met with decided resistance.”

I am much less fatalistic about Russia’s expansionist ways. With a different leader at a different time, I do not suppose that Russia would be bound to invade its neighbour. But the UK is right to support Ukraine for many reasons. For me, the most important relates to the way Ukraine gave up its status as a country in possession of nuclear weapons, in part because of the assurances it received at the time from countries, including the UK, as part of the Budapest memorandum. Under the memorandum, we offered assurances to Ukraine in relation to its security. While they were not security guarantees, I see the support the UK is showing Ukraine as consistent with what we pledged back in 1994.

I suggest that the UK should show the same solidarity and ability to work with European neighbours that Britain showed during the Crimean war. Liberal democracy must be defended and preserved, regardless of who Palmerston’s latest successor might be.

So, not Nadine then

 However, one ultra-loyalist in the shape of Steve Barclay has filled one of the vacated posts. The new chancellor is to be Nadim Zahawi, characterised by a former YouGov colleague as someone who was good at securing favourable deals. One suspects that he will support Johnson only as long as it suits him.

Nadine Dorries for Chancellor?

 Following the headline resignations of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Health Secretary, not to mention the queue of junior ministers for the exit, it is said that Boris Johnson is in a hurry to identify those Conservative MPs still loyal to him. Only Jacob Rees-Mogg, Ben Wallace, Liz Truss, Priti Patel and Nadine Dorries have publicly staked their future on the PM at the time of writing. Will two of those five fill the vacancies?

Labour is calling for a general election rather than a reshuffle, but secretly they must feel that is the last thing they want when their leadership has not made any great impact on public perception. Locally, their MPs are unpopular within the constituency parties for different reasons.

[Updated 2022-07-5 20:51]

Local schools in Neath Port Talbot may gain a reprieve

There is an early sign that the coalition is putting clear (or should that be "rainbow"?) water between themselves and the Labour junto they replaced last month. The first NPT News issued by the coalition announces that it:

wishes to review the decision taken in respect of school reorganisation in the Swansea Valley. It seeks to establish if alternative ways to bring 21st Century School standards to the Swansea Valley can be achieved which would be more acceptable to the community.

If this means that the excessive centralisation, which led to good, popular, local schools being closed, can be stopped or even reversed, then it is very welcome. If the coalition looks at the carbon footprint of the reorganisation, then it is doubly welcome.

Senedd bloat

 On today's Sunday Supplement, Huw Irranca-Davies did not claim, as some summaries have done, that the Labour/Plaid Cymru plans for the future of Welsh government would improve the quality of Senedd members. He did say that it was not a case of "jobs for the boys". But logical analysis surely shows that increasing the number of Members of the Senedd by over fifty per cent and drawing those members from closed party lists is the recipe for filling the Welsh parliament with party hacks. Indeed, I remember when Labour used to denigrate the then Members of the Welsh Assembly (AMs) who  emerged from top-up regional lists because they had not been directly elected in a constituency.

It was also naughty of him to claim total "liberal" support for the Labour scheme because Liberal Democrats have consistently argued for an increase in the number of elected eyeballs to scrutinise legislation. As far as I know, the party has not had a chance to debate these particular proposals. I am not saying that all Welsh Lib Dems are against them, but informal soundings suggest that opinion in the party is divided and they need to be put to the test at the Welsh AGM. Labour has had the opportunity to have a conference to debate them (the inspiration for the Irranca-Davies interview this morning). We should to, before our leader commits herself further.

Qatar hypocrisy

 Homosexuality is illegal in Qatar. However, the authorities in Doha have promised that LGBTQ fans will be perfectly safe in the state, a former British protectorate. It is not the only example of Qatar's two faces. It is a hereditary monarchy in which all the civil power is held by the ruling family, yet it hosts a liberal broadcasting organisation with world coverage in Aljazeera. The organisers of the World Cup boast of fair working conditions for the men who built the stadiums, yet rights have not improved for those involved in construction otherwise.

 It is quite understandable that out fans do not take the moratorium on homosexuality on trust and are reluctant to follow their teams in the World Cup finals in person. Sadly, this is not going to change the law in Qatar. 

Arbuthnot's 18th century treatise on lying

 Thanks to Melvyn Bragg and guests for putting me on to this work by the Scottish doctor, mathematician and satirist, Dr John Arbuthnot. Set aside the flowery language, the classical references and the fact that Arbuthnot was a Tory opposed to the Whigs, and much of his prospectus stands up today. It is hard to know whether he was being sarcastic or serious when he suggested that lying was necessary in politics and financial affairs, but there are clearly many people in high places today who believe both. There is less doubt when he goes on to say:

The Seventh Chapter is wholly taken up in an Enquiry, Which of the two Parties are the greatest Artists in Political Lying. [The author] owns the Tories have been better believed of late; but, that the Whigs have much the greater Genius's amongst them. He attri­butes the late ill Success of the Whig-Party to their glutting the Market, and retailing too much of a bad Commodity at once: When there is too great a Quantity of Worms, it is hard to catch Gudgeons. He proposes a Scheme for the Recovery of the Credit of the Whig-Party, which indeed seems to be somewhat Chimerical, and does not savour of that sound Judgment the Author has shown in the rest of the Work It amounts to this, That the Party should agree to vent nothing but Truth for three Months together, which will give them Cre­dit for six Months Lying afterwards. He owns, that he believes it almost impossible to find fit Persons to execute this Scheme. Towards the end of the Chapter, he in­veighs severely against the Folly of Parties, in retaining such Scoundrels and Men of Low Genius's to retail their Lyes; such as most of the present News-Writers are, who besides a strong Bent and Inclination towards the Profession, seem to be wholly ignorant in the Rules of Pseudology, and not at all qualified for so weighty a Trust.