Tuesday 12 July 2022

Mutatis mutandis

 The UK's finances plunged because of a world-wide crisis in the face of which the government was powerless. Consequently, social service budgets and benefits had to be constrained and real-term pay cuts for government employees. That was the story in 2009 and it was not believed by opposition parties nor by the Daily Mail, Sun and Telegraph.

Fast forward a decade and a government of a different hue spins the same tale. For "global financial crisis" read "global pandemic". Unsurprisingly, the Conservative-supporting Mail, Sun and Telegraph believe the government this time.

In 2008 and 2009, chancellor Darling valiantly started to mend the hole in government finances left by his predecessor. By contrast, in 2022 all but one of the pretenders to the Tory throne promise to cut personal taxation, thus increasing our indebtedness at a time of rising interest rates. Their theory is that this will stimulate growth in the economy, actually increasing the tax take. Never mind the inflation, which will force the Bank of England to put up interest rates yet again. What the ten hungry men and women don't say is what will happen when the increase in income does not occur. But we know from history: social service budgets and benefits will be constrained and there will be real-term pay cuts for government employees.

All the MPs who have announced their intention to contest the leadership are complicit in the Johnson administration's corruption and hypocrisy. All of them have gamed the system to a greater or lesser extent for their personal financial benefit. However, at least Rishi Sunak has had the courage to stick to a programme of financial responsibility. If he becomes prime minister, I would expect his government to honour his pledge to restore the triple lock on state pensions. I would not put the same trust in most of his rivals.


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