A minority of a minority elects our next PM

 As has frequently been pointed out by Peter Black, an unrepresentative section of the British population has been able to vote on who becomes Her Majesty's first minister. How small that section is was revealed at today's media conference mounted by the Conservative party. Against speculation that party membership could be as high as 200,000, Sir Graham Brady announced that there were just over 172,000 members eligible to vote. Of them, Ms Truss obtained the confidence of just over 80,000. The defeated candidate, Rishi Sunak, convinced over 60,000 that he would be a more responsible leader, There were 654 spoiled ballots; one can only speculate what message they conveyed. 

Sunak has already stated that he would not serve in a Truss cabinet. It was Sunak who garnered the majority of MPs' votes in the short-listing process. Given the split in the membership vote, it may be difficult for Truss to win over Sunak supporters. A period of creative conflict in the Commons, stretching the Conservative tradition of party loyalty, may well ensue.

Of course, Truss could well pull a uey as she has done so often previously. Having made promises solely to convince the predominantly reactionary Conservative constituency, as PM she may say that the books were unexpectedly bad and that she may have to postpone some of her tax cuts. She will probably go ahead with the cancellation of the rise in national insurance, which helps her wider natural constituency, but there is otherwise no incentive for her to help the working poor. I hope I am wrong, but she will probably go ahead with one of her consistent ideas: removing carbon taxes, rather than targeting them more precisely.

Coming just after a TV report from Somalia on the famine brought on by unprecedented years of drought, it was dispiriting that there was no mention of global warming by our soon-to-be prime minister. Indeed, it was remarkable that someone who still holds the portfolio of foreign minister should make virtually no reference to affairs outside Britain. It really does look as if it will be the Johnson continuation ministry, just as John Major continued the Thatcher project.