Arab Spring: the recoil

 Tunisia was the country in which the Arab Spring started. The Tunisian "Jasmine Revolution" was a revolt against the long-time rule of president Zine ben Ali, and the corruption, abatement of civil liberty and poor living conditions that were seen to flow from it. A period of democratic government resulted, but this has now been swept aside by Kais Saied who has seized power as president. So the nation is now back to square one but with added racism. Saied has closed Tunisia's borders to immigration from the south and has created a hostile environment for Tunisian residents with a sub-Saharan origin. (This matters to the UK because Tunisia has been a waystation for refugees and other Africans seeking to reach Europe. Saied's actions must throw an extra burden on Calais.)

Egypt was another nation in which a brief period of democracy as a result of the Spring was snuffed out, in that case reverting to rule by the military establishment. President Sisi's regime has detained without trial tens of thousands (Human Rights Watch estimate) of people including foreigners. Admittedly, the Muslim Brotherhood government which was overthrown also used detention without trial but the numbers detained seem not to have exceeded 12,000. The regime has not (yet) allowed the killing of prisoners, which was a major charge against previous dictator Mubarak, but Egypt is still a long way from the democracy which the Tahir Square protesters envisaged. 

Of the nations most affected by the wave of revolts as named in the article cited earlier, (Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain), only Bahrain is relatively peaceful. Armed conflict, aggravated by the great powers to a greater of lesser extent, continues in Syria and Yemen. The revolt failed in the constitutional monarchy of Bahrain, where there has been a gradual move towards civilised norms, in particular the enfranchisement of women. 

If there is a conclusion to be drawn, it is that it is difficult to make democracy stick in a country unused to it, especially as a result of abrupt change. European history, however, suggests that progress will be made. Both Germany and France suffered reversion to autocratic rule after brief attempts at rule by the people. Both are now established democracies. There are signs in Tunisia at least that the people are not going to submit quietly to another dictatorship.