Tempering expectations

 The media, prompted by the party's PR team, are talking up Lib Dems chances of making big gains in next month's English council elections. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour is confident that their attacks on the Conservative leadership are working. Opinion surveys show support for Conservatives at a very low point. 

However, people should remember that there was a big swing against the Conservatives the last time these council elections came round, and that the big winners were the Liberal Democrats. So there may not be many more votes left to squeeze. The pent-up increases in state pensions and other benefits are beginning to trickle out, which may help voters to feel better, though admittedly this will be offset by the nurses' strike over the weekend before the poll, unless the government can pull off a last-minute settlement. There will surely be more confidence in a government which is seen to be in control, as against the faltering Theresa May of 2019.

There is another factor: the coronation of Charles III. Publicity surrounding this event is already building up and will surely increase before the postal ballots are issued. This is sure to bring out the conservatism of the majority of English voters and may well work against Labour and Lib Dems. Moreover, there seems to be a concerted effort by election candidates to emphasise local issues, distracting the voters from the national background, even to the extent of rebranding themselves "Local Conservative".

Conservative Campaign Headquarters is no doubt already briefing that they expect large losses of seats and councils. So, when the carnage turns out on 5th May not to have taken place, CCH will claim this as almost a victory. One trusts that Vincent Square will either make no predictions as to gains, or at least pitch these on the low side.

I would like to be proved wrong, if only because a disastrous Tory campaign will split the party, with Johnson supporters calling for Sunak's head. There could be a Commons vote of no confidence leading to a general election. There would be a short-term deterioration in the economy resulting from international loss of confidence, but in the long run a country more at ease with itself.