Will Uxbridge voters see a change?

 The Labour candidate is tipped to win the by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip next Thursday, This is the seat vacated by the former prime minister, Boris Johnson. But it appears that a change of party representation will not result in a major change from Conservative policies. The latest departure from social democratic values is documented by the /Guardian (and several other papers):

Keir Starmer’s decision not to scrap the two-child benefit cap if Labour wins power has exposed deep splits within the party, as he faces mounting calls to rethink the policy.

Facing the prospect of a battle at this week’s national policy forum (NPF) over the controversial decision, shadow cabinet ministers were sent out to defend his position. They argued that if Labour wanted to appear fiscally credible at the next election, it could not make any spending commitments without saying how they would be funded.

But at a bad-tempered meeting of the parliamentary Labour party on Monday, almost every question to the deputy leader, Angela Rayner, was about Starmer’s stance on the two-child benefit limit. Some frustrated MPs called it a mistake and urged party leaders to reconsider.

Senior party figures, including Anas Sarwar, the leader of the Labour party in Scotland, which sets its own policy, publicly broke ranks and suggested they would fight the policy, while several shadow cabinet ministers said they were “despairing” at the decision.

Sir Keir's stance is similar to that of Blair's before the 1997 general election. Blair was at pains to appeal to "Mondeo man" with his reversal of the more socialist policies of his predecessor, John Smith. He may also have been ingratiating himself with Wall Street in order to give Labour a soft landing when they achieved their expected election majority. A major difference between 30 years ago and now is that then the party expected a narrow majority (and were surprised by the landslide) whereas now a landslide is predicted by all the opinion-sounders. There clearly is no electoral reason for Sir Keir's stance, part of a conservative pattern which has emerged. 

It will be interesting to compare the percentage turnouts for Labour and the more socially progressive Liberal Democrats in all the three constituencies counting on Thursday. The other two are Somerton and Frome, which is a two-horse race between a Conservative and a Liberal Democrat, and Selby and Ainsty where Labour say they will overturn a 20,000 Conservative majority. If Conservatives hold on to Selby, then the questioning within the Labour party of Sir Keir's policy shifts will increase.

[slight corrections applied 2023-07-19]