In January, prime minister Sunak promised five things: to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the national debt, cut NHS waiting lists and stop undocumented immigration.
Stopping the boats was always going to be a fantasy and cutting waiting lists wishful thinking, but halving inflation and increasing GDP should each have been a walk-over. The first target should have easily been met because of the exceptionally high levels the CPI had reached; what goes up has to come down. The second was even more achievable because successive Tory administrations had reduced economic activity below that of our international competitors, so that any return to normal would have looked sparkling.
Well, inflation is still well above the Bank of England's target of 2%. And today's release of GDP data for the previous quarter shows stagnation, not recovery. Admittedly, some of the data are not yet finalised and later corrections tend to add a percentage point to the growth figure, but that would still leave a washed-out image of the UK economy
For comparison, initial estimates of GDP in the same quarter in USA and in our nearest competitor France show growth of 4.9% and 0.1% respectively.
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