This posting was inspired by an official Network Rail media release headed "Severn Tunnel modernisation" sneaked out last year:
Autumn 2016
We’re working to transform the Severn Tunnel. The130-year old structure will close for six weeks from 12th September – 21st October 2016 to allow us to install electrical equipment that will ultimately power the new passenger trains.
The new fleet of electric trains will mean faster, quieter, greener, more reliable journeys between Swansea and London. With reduced journey times and more seats, journeys will be more comfortable for passengers.
The railway is set to be electrified from London to Cardiff by 2019 and to Swansea by 2024.[My emphasis]
Under the coalition Cardiff would have been electrified by the end of this year and Swansea soon thereafter.
Wednesday, 20 December 2017
Tuesday, 19 December 2017
How many moves ahead?
It is a hoary old chess story, which points up the difference between tactics and strategy. The master of combination play is asked how many moves ahead he calculates and replies "usually 20" (or 10, or 30, according to the source); the positional player is then posed the same question and says: "One - but always the best one". The history of the tale is explored here.
I was reminded of that when I read Jon Andrew's contribution on Liberal Democrat Voice to the predictions stakes. He writes: "If a chess player decided that he or she had no idea what the next ten moves would bring so didn’t bother planning ahead, they would find themselves checkmated pretty quickly." Well, that is true up to a point. It certainly applies if you are an attacking player: you need to see deep into the branches of the tree of moves to make sure that there is not a hidden flaw in your logic. Likewise, if you are on the wrong end of an attack, you need to work out the best way to survive it. However, several very successful grandmasters (Tigran Petrosian comes to mind) relied on the steady accretion of small advantages leading to a winning position. For them, it was probably necessary only to check no more than two or three moves ahead. Of course, they depended on a positional sense developed over years of experience.
Yes, Liberal Democrats need to think tactically and many a local council or by-election campaign has been won by reading the runes and switching resources or changing a line of attack accordingly. On the other hand, one may also point to a couple of occasions in general election campaigns when the leader failed to anticipate the nature of a counter-attack by the Conservatives and their supporters in the media.
The long-term strategy must be right too, and I would define that as continually hammering out the core message of what the party stands for. Otherwise, the party is seen as a set of opportunists, not much different from the others.
I was reminded of that when I read Jon Andrew's contribution on Liberal Democrat Voice to the predictions stakes. He writes: "If a chess player decided that he or she had no idea what the next ten moves would bring so didn’t bother planning ahead, they would find themselves checkmated pretty quickly." Well, that is true up to a point. It certainly applies if you are an attacking player: you need to see deep into the branches of the tree of moves to make sure that there is not a hidden flaw in your logic. Likewise, if you are on the wrong end of an attack, you need to work out the best way to survive it. However, several very successful grandmasters (Tigran Petrosian comes to mind) relied on the steady accretion of small advantages leading to a winning position. For them, it was probably necessary only to check no more than two or three moves ahead. Of course, they depended on a positional sense developed over years of experience.
Yes, Liberal Democrats need to think tactically and many a local council or by-election campaign has been won by reading the runes and switching resources or changing a line of attack accordingly. On the other hand, one may also point to a couple of occasions in general election campaigns when the leader failed to anticipate the nature of a counter-attack by the Conservatives and their supporters in the media.
The long-term strategy must be right too, and I would define that as continually hammering out the core message of what the party stands for. Otherwise, the party is seen as a set of opportunists, not much different from the others.
Saturday, 16 December 2017
Arthur C Clarke Day
Arthur C Clarke was born in Minehead 100 years ago today. He never lost his Somerset accent.
Thursday, 14 December 2017
Is Chris Froome putting his health at risk?
Cycling Weekly has explained the background to the latest performance-enhancing drug charges against cyclist Chris Froome.The standard salbutamol single dose is 100 micrograms. That is usually enough to relieve asthma symptoms quickly. Only in the case of a severe attack should more than a couple of puffs be needed. Chris Froome's test showed that he had exceeded the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) rules (1,600 micrograms of salbutamol can be taken by an athlete via inhaler in a 24-hour period without the need for a therapeutic use exemption (TUE) certificate) even allowing for build-up in the system.
If a preventer (e.g. an inhaled corticosteroid) is taken regularly there should be only occasional need for salbutamol. In New Zealand in the 1970s and 1980s, beta-agonists (the class of drug to which salbutamol belongs) were prescribed for prophylactic use. Prescribing policy changed when the rate of deaths among asthmatics began to rise noticeably.
Salbutamol is safer than the favoured drug in New Zealand, but even so at high doses there are side-effects affecting the heart and even breathing. I would be worried if I found myself taking 400 micrograms in a 24-hour period, yet I understand Froome's medical advice is that he can take up to 800 micrograms in 12 hours. If, as the latest test seems to show, he exceeded that during La Vuelta, then questions must be asked.
Wednesday, 13 December 2017
Labour set to repeat old mistakes
The Guardian reports that John McDonnell has spoken at the launch of a report commissioned by Labour on how to better direct investment and improve productivity.
A possible Labour plan to move much of the Bank of England from London to Birmingham and other cities would form part of wider efforts to rebalance the UK economy away from a reliance on the south-east, John McDonnell has said.
The shadow chancellor said too many decisions were made in Whitehall or Westminster, resulting in “a distortion of economic policy direction”, and there was also an argument for holding sessions of parliament around the country.
The report, produced by an economics consultancy and a management consultant firm, argues that far too much investment, particularly in high-tech sectors, is focused only on London and the south-east and east of England. To redress this imbalance, the report suggests locating Labour’s planned national investment bank in Birmingham and making the city home to a new strategic investment board to liaise between the Treasury, the Bank of England and the business department. It says some functions of the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham, with more offices for the bank in Glasgow, Belfast, Cardiff, Newcastle and Plymouth, to ensure better regional decision-making. McDonnell did not rule out the idea that this could mean the Bank largely leaving Threadneedle Street in London, where it has been based for almost 300 years.
I am all for moving administrative functions out of London, but splintering the Bank of England looks like repeating the mistakes of Brown/Balls Treasury when the tripartite system of financial regulation led to speculators playing the system, enabling the transatlantic credit crunch of 2007/8.
A possible Labour plan to move much of the Bank of England from London to Birmingham and other cities would form part of wider efforts to rebalance the UK economy away from a reliance on the south-east, John McDonnell has said.
The shadow chancellor said too many decisions were made in Whitehall or Westminster, resulting in “a distortion of economic policy direction”, and there was also an argument for holding sessions of parliament around the country.
The report, produced by an economics consultancy and a management consultant firm, argues that far too much investment, particularly in high-tech sectors, is focused only on London and the south-east and east of England. To redress this imbalance, the report suggests locating Labour’s planned national investment bank in Birmingham and making the city home to a new strategic investment board to liaise between the Treasury, the Bank of England and the business department. It says some functions of the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham, with more offices for the bank in Glasgow, Belfast, Cardiff, Newcastle and Plymouth, to ensure better regional decision-making. McDonnell did not rule out the idea that this could mean the Bank largely leaving Threadneedle Street in London, where it has been based for almost 300 years.
I am all for moving administrative functions out of London, but splintering the Bank of England looks like repeating the mistakes of Brown/Balls Treasury when the tripartite system of financial regulation led to speculators playing the system, enabling the transatlantic credit crunch of 2007/8.
Monday, 11 December 2017
ME helpline
Today Clare Ogden of Action for ME sent out an email offering advice and a contact number for sufferers during this period which can be stressful. As someone who knows what it is be frustrated by a body which won't do what you want it to, I am happy to pass this on.
NEWS RELEASE
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| Draft: 08 December 2017 |
Many people with the chronic, neurological condition M.E. tell us they feel very lonely and isolated at this time of year, particularly those who live alone with no family or friends to share the festivities with. A visit, phone call or simply a thoughtful card from a friend could make a positive difference – so if you know someone with M.E., let them know you are thinking of them this festive season.
If you have M.E. and you need information and support, call us on 0117 927 9551 (we’re here until 4pm on 22 December, and re-open on 3 January), or join one of our friendly online forums, open 24/7. You can also read advice from Rose, who has M.E., in her article on coping with Christmas alone at www.actionforme.org.uk/alone-at-xmas
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Saturday, 9 December 2017
Star status and sexual exploitation
This was written about opera and paedophilia, but, changing some of the terms, it could have been about the pop world, theatre or even politics and any variety of sexual abuse:
The cult of interpretive genius in which a single man can come to be seen as so gifted and important that institutions and systems will protect him for 40 years is connected to a view of sexual abuse that sees perpetrators as uniquely perverted predators rather than as the horribly predictable outcomes of the accumulation of power. In order to make and hear music in healthy ways, and think about sex in healthy ways, we must destroy and replace the insular star system and the dysfunctional and unjust accumulations of power it enables.
The cult of interpretive genius in which a single man can come to be seen as so gifted and important that institutions and systems will protect him for 40 years is connected to a view of sexual abuse that sees perpetrators as uniquely perverted predators rather than as the horribly predictable outcomes of the accumulation of power. In order to make and hear music in healthy ways, and think about sex in healthy ways, we must destroy and replace the insular star system and the dysfunctional and unjust accumulations of power it enables.
Friday, 8 December 2017
We are heading for permanent transition status with the EU
In other words, a messy typical British compromise which will please no one. The UK will be giving up its right to influence EU decisions, both in the Council and the European Parliament, which is what members of the European Movement (such as myself) have been fighting against. On the other hand, the UK will not be able to break free of the customs union so long as the Irish border problem remains, i.e., indefinitely. This will displease those who expected Cameron and May to keep their promises to take us out of the EU altogether.
It would be a Norway-style relationship in all but name. If I remember correctly, I predicted this outcome in a Web debate organised by the Evening Post during the general election campaign - I certainly remember saying that nobody would be happy with the outcome of the negotiations.
Of course, Vince Cable could be right in his assessment that her own party will tear Mrs May's accord with the DUP and the EU27 to shreds, in which case we will be back to square one.
It would be a Norway-style relationship in all but name. If I remember correctly, I predicted this outcome in a Web debate organised by the Evening Post during the general election campaign - I certainly remember saying that nobody would be happy with the outcome of the negotiations.
Of course, Vince Cable could be right in his assessment that her own party will tear Mrs May's accord with the DUP and the EU27 to shreds, in which case we will be back to square one.
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