Bridgend Ford

So the blow has fallen. The decision was half-expected, but not the speed. The last shift at the Ford engine factory in Bridgend will clock off in September next year. Suppliers to Ford in the region will be hit and there will be a further ripple effect because skilled Ford workers have set up home in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot as well as in Bridgend county borough itself.

Ford management has to bear much of the blame for the situation in that it did not respond as fast as its competitors to changes in the industry. However, the threat of Brexit making cross-border supply lines economically non-viable must have sealed Bridgend's fate.

Eight years ago, TRW Cam Gears closed in Resolven and a few years earlier Borg-Warner had terminated its Margam operation. The opportunities for engineering workers are narrowing and moving eastward. CAF Rail has started work on new trains in Newport, Gwent. Aston Martin has committed to the Vale of Glamorgan for the production of its electric vehicle, but the Welsh government has still not been able to tie Ineos down to the use of the Bridgend plant for its Land Rover replacement.

The tourist industry is valuable to Wales, and it should be encouraged. Universities and other research facilities here continue to produce innovative ideas. However, these cannot pay all the bills. A healthy economy is a mixed economy and it seems that south-west Wales is being drained of an important part of that mix.

Hopeful signs in Denmark

Barely a fortnight after the Liberal bloc in the European Parliament was strengthened, elections in Denmark hit ultra-conservatives hard, strengthened the social democrats to the extent that they are now the largest party and even enabled the largest (economic) liberal party to more than hold its own. It is reassuring that the tide of xenophobia in Denmark seems to have been stemmed. Now the process of negotiating a coalition government, so familiar to devotees of Borgen, begins.

Glamorgan: this could be the big recovery at last

Great news for long-suffering Glamorgan members came this afternoon. The county beat the weather in Northampton to record the second win of the season in the county championship. Glamorgan are still unbeaten in the second division.

It augurs well for next week's fixture at St Helen's starting on Tuesday.  All we need now is a stretch of fine weather.

Factors for and against concreting over the Gwent Levels

I agree with what Peter Black and Jac o' the North - in a rare spirit of unanimity - have had to say about Mark Drakeford's decision yesterday.

This "venomous thing not to be trusted"* would just add that, ecology apart, the threat of Brexit must have been a factor in assessing the economic benefits of the relief road. An Irish Times report last year stated that:

almost 80 per cent of Irish-registered HGVs heading for the Continent pass through Welsh ports, the vast majority via Holyhead. Yet as a result of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union – or more precisely, Theresa May’s interpretation of the implications of the Leave vote – all of this is under threat.

Yes, Holyhead is a major loser, but ports here in the south-west also dip out, with a consequent effect on goods traffic on the M4.

Apart from Brexit, decisions by government could have been designed to throw more traffic on to the M4. There was the axing of the electrification of the main line west of Cardiff, incidentally losing the opportunity to reduce pollution by diesel engines. (Note that this reversal of a coalition decision took place when Conservatives ruled alone, and just after a general election which its announcement might have influenced.) The elimination of one of the most convenient interchanges in England and Wales, the bus stands at Cardiff Central station, still to be replaced, is another factor.

 Jac queries the need for a commission to take things forward. Certainly, AMs must already know the key features of a healthy economic future for Wales. Jac's points are:

• Let us hope that this unexpected decision heralds a new era of development and investment spread across the country, thereby obviating the need for an M4 ‘relief road’.
• Presumably the announcement will be accompanied by promises to invest in public transport. Again, I urge that thinking goes beyond the Cardiff region, because there is a country out there.
• Nothing would prove this administration’s commitment to both Wales beyond Cardiff and public transport better than a west coast railway line from Carmarthen to Bangor.
• Finally, this decision might deter commuters from Bristol and elsewhere moving into Wales for cheaper housing – have you thought about that? Well, have you!

It would be interesting to see the traffic figures for the Severn bridges.  I would bet that commuter traffic predominates, with traffic to Heathrow not that far behind.

We do need better north-south links within Wales. I am normally the last person to argue for more expenditure on roads, but the amounts spent on the A470 are pitiful compared to the sums being discussed for motorway improvements in the south. Rail journey times speak for themselves. There need to be more direct and better links with the English North-West (Transport for Wales has made a start) and Midlands. Government at both ends of the motorway must lose its obsession with the London-Cardiff axis.

  * Jac's characterisation of Liberal Democrats. Some might take a more objective view of Kirsty Williams' politically suicidal decision to take the opportunity to improve Welsh education at all levels

A teaser from VoteWatch Europe

The headline on their latest missive is "Full list of new MEPs (names, affiliation and background)". However, what follows is a link to their secretariat from whom one has to request the list. Full datasets will come "later".

VoteWatch draws attention to the fact that, as predicted, over half the MEPs are new. They say: "This means that a lot of the 'institutional memory' of the European Parliament will be lost, i.e. many of the MEPs who are rapporteurs, who have acquired expertise or have played leading roles will be replaced with new figures.". However, this is partly made up for by the return of some UK Liberal Democrats who remember what the parliament was like before 2014. Chris Davies and Bill Newton-Dunn are the most prominent of the returners.

Provocation

It is good to see al-Jazeera back on non-HD terrestrial television. For coverage of world events, its rolling news broadcast beats the more parochial BBC News Channel. (Top of the shop of course is BBC World Service radio, but this demands full attention. I can see the TV out of the corner of my eye while otherwise working on the PC.)

If it had not been for al-Jazeera, I would have missed the Israeli authorities' spoiling in Jerusalem what should have been a joyous occasion for Muslims. Israel Hayom reports that there was "an early morning decision to allow Jewish worshippers into the site, which usually remains closed during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan to minimize friction between Jewish and Muslim worshippers." (The Temple Mount is a focal point for the three great religions emanating from the Middle East.)

The riots which broke out were aggravated by the presence of illegal settlers. The Jerusalem Post reports the predictable reactions of Muslim authorities and anti-Israel groups. It is hard not to see the hand of a discredited Israeli prime minister behind the provocative action as the nation enters another election campaign. Palestinian violence will strengthen the appeal of Likud and more ultra-nationalist parties who can be expected to support Netanyahu - if he escapes jail.

Modi's Mandelson?

It seems we shall be seeing more of Amit Shah, now that he has entered the Indian cabinet. If he is as tough a negotiator as he is a political strategist, a post-Brexit UK government will find it difficult to strike a better deal with India than the EU has.

Only two contenders for the Lib Dem throne

There was a whiff of "stitch-up" surrounding chief whip Alistair Carmichael's confirmation on Lib Dem Voice that there would be just two candidates for the succession to Vince Cable as leader of the party. (At least we ordinary Lib Dems will get some measure of choice, something that was denied to hard-working Conservatives when Theresa May was imposed on them.) Both Jo Swinson and Ed Davey come from the core of the parliamentary party. Both have ministerial experience, Ed's rather more exalted than Jo's. Both voted for the rise in tuition fees, against the advice of the party at the time which recommended abstention on the proposal. (However, I do not know whether either signed the controversial NUS pledge before the election, so I have no grounds for accusing them of bad faith.)  I would have liked to see a more radical candidate on the ballot in order to make a real choice of it, though.

Those caveats apart, I have few qualms about either leading the party, and I feel more personally involved than when candidates were chosen by their fellow-MPs to contest the succession to Charles Kennedy. The previous political experience of both Clegg and Huhne had been mainly in Brussels so they were largely unknown to the rest of the party. There ought to be a political equivalent to the Kevin Bacon number or the Erdős number (which measures the "collaborative distance" in authoring academic papers between that person and the peripatetic Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős). I can claim a degree of proximity of 2 in relation to Ed Davey, having chatted to Emily Gasson, then recently married to Ed, at a fringe meeting at federal conference many years ago. I did not actually meet Jo, but I was on the edge of a conversation  she was a part of at the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election campaign HQ. Her contribution was enough to impress me.

So my choice will depend more than usual on personality. The new leader will not only have to inspire the party but also convince the nation. I lean towards Jo, but it is only fair to let the campaigning play for a week or so before deciding where to put my cross.

Later: I forgot the important message. If you are not already a member, but share our values and want a vote in the leadership ballot, you have until Friday to join. See https://www.libdems.org.uk/11k-new-members