As justifiable anger against the demented president of the United States grows over his endorsement of a racist and anti-Muslim group in England, there is a timely report of a discussion under the ambit of the European Parliament about a book analysing the effects of Da'esh in Europe. Professor Olivier Roy asserts that "Isis" is no more threatening to Europe than other millenarian or terrorist organisations that preceded it, and that have since disappeared. One may demur over this reassuring opinion, but more to the point is the professor's hard research over a long period which shows that:
young radicals are living at the margins of society of the Muslim population in Europe. The large majority of Muslims reject them and their actions.
Trump's demonisation of non-white and/or non Judaeo-Christian communities world-wide mirrors his atavistic attitude to the North American population. It is high time we on this side of the Atlantic by-passed the presidency and spoke to and gave more publicity to other pillars of United States democracy.
Thursday, 30 November 2017
Dame Jenni Murray weeps over Brexit vote
One must admire Dame Jenni, who embodies all that is good about BBC Radio. I admit to personal bias in that she is one of the few BBC celebrities to reply to a personal email. Several years ago, I criticised the way that Woman's Hour had reinforced the Western view of Thailand advanced in The King and I. She replied in person, patiently explaining that she and the programme team had been aware that there were other aspects to the story, but had been unable to secure an appropriate expert in time for the story.
So it was not surprising that she showed her passionate attachment to the European dream of lasting peace after two world wars which had their roots on the continent. In an extract from a book about the arguments for and against the European Union, reproduced in the Yorkshire Post and the i, she recalls her mother's bitter memories of World War Two and declares:
to my generation, the prospect of peace in Europe and an entente which would bring us together in a most cordial manner didn’t seem to be about trade and economics, but a way to break down barriers and end the ‘little England’, ‘Land of Hope and Glory’ mentality which encouraged the Brit to consider him or herself superior to ‘Johnny Foreigner’.
and tells the following story
My most vivid memory of feeling thankful for being European came about during a visit to the theatre with some friends. I must have been in my early 30s and my companions were David, now my husband, Nancy, a friend from New York who was living in London and Uwe, her German banker boyfriend.
The play we saw was Bertolt Brecht’s The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui, subtitled A Parable Play and written in 1941. It charts the rise of Hitler through the satirical story of an ambitious, fictional Chicago gangster who learns to speak effectively in public, goose step and make the notorious ‘Heil Hitler’ raised arm salute from a famous actor. He needs no training in how to use his ‘boys’ to bully his constituents into submission. The play ends with Ui on a high platform proclaiming his power to his public. The ‘Actor’ enters the stage to deliver the epilogue and speaks the chilling words: ‘The bitch that bore him is in heat again.’
After the play, the four of us went to a pub for a drink. These two young men looked at each other and said what we’d watched must be seen in a strictly historical context. Yes, some 40 years ago, they, an Englishman and a German, would have been trying to kill each other. “But now,” they agreed, “it simply couldn’t happen. We’re all Europeans now.” “No more war, Tommy,” said Uwe with a smile. “No more war, Jerry,” said David. And they hugged as if to underline the point.
I hadn’t thought about that incident for a long time and, as the years have passed, we’ve gone our separate ways – Nancy to America and Uwe to Germany and David and I have raised two sons. They were both brought up as Europeans. They’ve travelled freely throughout Europe, learned the languages, enjoyed the reciprocal free healthcare and neither has so much as a hint of racism or xenophobia. It was primarily for them that I wept when the result of the referendum was announced on June 23, 2016 and Brexit became the mot du jour.
I regret that the political, as opposed to the economic, aspects of our membership of the EU did not play a part in the 2016 referendum debate as they had in 1975 (people who tell a different story were either not alive, have a defective memory or are downright liars). I doubt that the result of the vote would have been different, but at least it would have led to a more rounded debate.
So it was not surprising that she showed her passionate attachment to the European dream of lasting peace after two world wars which had their roots on the continent. In an extract from a book about the arguments for and against the European Union, reproduced in the Yorkshire Post and the i, she recalls her mother's bitter memories of World War Two and declares:
to my generation, the prospect of peace in Europe and an entente which would bring us together in a most cordial manner didn’t seem to be about trade and economics, but a way to break down barriers and end the ‘little England’, ‘Land of Hope and Glory’ mentality which encouraged the Brit to consider him or herself superior to ‘Johnny Foreigner’.
and tells the following story
My most vivid memory of feeling thankful for being European came about during a visit to the theatre with some friends. I must have been in my early 30s and my companions were David, now my husband, Nancy, a friend from New York who was living in London and Uwe, her German banker boyfriend.
The play we saw was Bertolt Brecht’s The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui, subtitled A Parable Play and written in 1941. It charts the rise of Hitler through the satirical story of an ambitious, fictional Chicago gangster who learns to speak effectively in public, goose step and make the notorious ‘Heil Hitler’ raised arm salute from a famous actor. He needs no training in how to use his ‘boys’ to bully his constituents into submission. The play ends with Ui on a high platform proclaiming his power to his public. The ‘Actor’ enters the stage to deliver the epilogue and speaks the chilling words: ‘The bitch that bore him is in heat again.’
After the play, the four of us went to a pub for a drink. These two young men looked at each other and said what we’d watched must be seen in a strictly historical context. Yes, some 40 years ago, they, an Englishman and a German, would have been trying to kill each other. “But now,” they agreed, “it simply couldn’t happen. We’re all Europeans now.” “No more war, Tommy,” said Uwe with a smile. “No more war, Jerry,” said David. And they hugged as if to underline the point.
I hadn’t thought about that incident for a long time and, as the years have passed, we’ve gone our separate ways – Nancy to America and Uwe to Germany and David and I have raised two sons. They were both brought up as Europeans. They’ve travelled freely throughout Europe, learned the languages, enjoyed the reciprocal free healthcare and neither has so much as a hint of racism or xenophobia. It was primarily for them that I wept when the result of the referendum was announced on June 23, 2016 and Brexit became the mot du jour.
I regret that the political, as opposed to the economic, aspects of our membership of the EU did not play a part in the 2016 referendum debate as they had in 1975 (people who tell a different story were either not alive, have a defective memory or are downright liars). I doubt that the result of the vote would have been different, but at least it would have led to a more rounded debate.
Wednesday, 29 November 2017
Michael Powell
No, not the Liberal Democrat councillor for Trallwn, but the English half of the Anglo-Hungarian film-makers, The Archers. American playwright and cultural critic Terry Teachout has an article about Powell, who is still apparently under-appreciated in the States, in spite of his being championed by Martin Scorsese.
Tuesday, 28 November 2017
Government support for IT
We became aware during the Bombardier/Boeing dispute that, though Bombardier did receive support from the Canadian government (and to a lesser extent from Northern Ireland), Boeing also benefits from grants and subsidies from federal, state and even local government. This is in addition to the virtually guaranteed contracts from the Department of Defense.
It was a pattern which is familiar to me from my time in government IT. In the 1960s, the US railed against European (including UK) government procurement policies which favoured native firms. The Americans eventually succeeded with Margaret Thatcher and Michael Heseltine abandoning home preference for government IT contracts. It was even received wisdom that a key contract had been reserved for a US firm. IBM (in particular) supported by huge US defence and administration contracts cleaned up, against the relatively poorly capitalised British IT companies.
Also emasculated in the Keith Joseph-inspired "reforms" was the National Computing Centre, set up under Harold Wilson (one of the few practical results of his call for a "technological revolution") to stimulate the application of IT to business and government and to set standards. (My one and only post-secondary paper qualification is a Certificate in Systems Analysis issued by the NCC.)
As an article in the New European points out,
Silicon Valley [would not] be what it is today without extensive Government support. According to a study by Brookings Institution, 18 of the 25 biggest breakthroughs in computing tech between 1946 and 1965 were funded by the federal government. The US government began schemes to encourage venture capital (ie risky) investing as early as 1958.
Games programming is all very well, we are good at it and it requires few non-market incentives, but we also need strategic thinking. The ability to analyse, plan, make sensible forecasts and marry the right technology to schemes has been lacking from many public projects over the last generation, a recent example being Universal Credit. There is also a need to fund research which will have no direct commercial benefit but could pay off in the long run, as the Americans have done.
I would urge the Chancellor and BIS to go beyond the narrow remit of providing specialist computer science teachers for the National Centre for Computing which was announced in the budget speech. It needs to provide strategic IT support for industry, especially SMEs, and for government as the former NCC did.
It was a pattern which is familiar to me from my time in government IT. In the 1960s, the US railed against European (including UK) government procurement policies which favoured native firms. The Americans eventually succeeded with Margaret Thatcher and Michael Heseltine abandoning home preference for government IT contracts. It was even received wisdom that a key contract had been reserved for a US firm. IBM (in particular) supported by huge US defence and administration contracts cleaned up, against the relatively poorly capitalised British IT companies.
Also emasculated in the Keith Joseph-inspired "reforms" was the National Computing Centre, set up under Harold Wilson (one of the few practical results of his call for a "technological revolution") to stimulate the application of IT to business and government and to set standards. (My one and only post-secondary paper qualification is a Certificate in Systems Analysis issued by the NCC.)
As an article in the New European points out,
Silicon Valley [would not] be what it is today without extensive Government support. According to a study by Brookings Institution, 18 of the 25 biggest breakthroughs in computing tech between 1946 and 1965 were funded by the federal government. The US government began schemes to encourage venture capital (ie risky) investing as early as 1958.
Games programming is all very well, we are good at it and it requires few non-market incentives, but we also need strategic thinking. The ability to analyse, plan, make sensible forecasts and marry the right technology to schemes has been lacking from many public projects over the last generation, a recent example being Universal Credit. There is also a need to fund research which will have no direct commercial benefit but could pay off in the long run, as the Americans have done.
I would urge the Chancellor and BIS to go beyond the narrow remit of providing specialist computer science teachers for the National Centre for Computing which was announced in the budget speech. It needs to provide strategic IT support for industry, especially SMEs, and for government as the former NCC did.
Monday, 27 November 2017
Prison overcrowding and suicide
Theresa May and her prisons minister no doubt cheered the recent news reports that "there is no direct link between prison suicides and overcrowding in prisons".
However, there is a coincidence in this country between high prison populations, higher turnover and suicides. The summary of this academic study, clearly one of those to which the latest news story relates, concludes that though there is no demonstrable link between overcrowding and suicide:
Questions remain about the causal mechanisms underlying variation in prison suicides and the impact of the lived experience of overcrowding. Further research is needed to examine the relative contribution of prison and prisoner characteristics to suicides.
Suicide is only one symptom of a prison régime which is demonstrably not right. Intra-prison violence, drug-taking and recidivism rates are all too high. New prisons, replacing Dickensian gaols, are part of the answer - but only a partial one if they take convicts further away from their families, as super-prisons tend to do. Bringing staffing levels to the optimum, as the Howard League and Prison Reform Trust as well as the Prison Officers Association have called for, is another part, which in turn will contribute to the motivation of prison staff. Also, there are too many people in prison who should not be there.
However, there is a coincidence in this country between high prison populations, higher turnover and suicides. The summary of this academic study, clearly one of those to which the latest news story relates, concludes that though there is no demonstrable link between overcrowding and suicide:
Questions remain about the causal mechanisms underlying variation in prison suicides and the impact of the lived experience of overcrowding. Further research is needed to examine the relative contribution of prison and prisoner characteristics to suicides.
Suicide is only one symptom of a prison régime which is demonstrably not right. Intra-prison violence, drug-taking and recidivism rates are all too high. New prisons, replacing Dickensian gaols, are part of the answer - but only a partial one if they take convicts further away from their families, as super-prisons tend to do. Bringing staffing levels to the optimum, as the Howard League and Prison Reform Trust as well as the Prison Officers Association have called for, is another part, which in turn will contribute to the motivation of prison staff. Also, there are too many people in prison who should not be there.
Sunday, 26 November 2017
Power of sex pests diminished
My first thought on reading the deputy party leader's open and honest piece relayed by Mark Pack was that she was too hard on herself. At the time of the initial complaints against Chris Rennard, the more just and humane mechanism for dealing with such sensitive matters which the Liberal Democrats now possess did not exist. Nor would recourse to law have been effective, as the Nigel Evans case was later to show. On reflection, there should have been more discussion with the wronged women after the initial decision had been made, and the defects in the complaints procedure should have been addressed straight away. However, Jo's position in the party was not quite as high then as it is now.
She says there are still things to be done, but at least one taboo has been broken. Breaking the Harvey Weinstein affair open has empowered women to say "no". Weinstein was only encouraged to persist in his behaviour because some of his targets felt powerless to resist (or, let's face it, driven by ambition to accede to) his sexual propositions. Now, because the climate of public opinion has clearly shifted, it will be more easy for sex pests from Hollywood producers down to local party bigwigs to be resisted.
She says there are still things to be done, but at least one taboo has been broken. Breaking the Harvey Weinstein affair open has empowered women to say "no". Weinstein was only encouraged to persist in his behaviour because some of his targets felt powerless to resist (or, let's face it, driven by ambition to accede to) his sexual propositions. Now, because the climate of public opinion has clearly shifted, it will be more easy for sex pests from Hollywood producers down to local party bigwigs to be resisted.
Saturday, 25 November 2017
Interest on student loans
The Treasury and Joe Johnson do not seem to have grasped the concept of lending money to students as a social act, not a commercial one. Recovery of the loan from the higher-paid is the equivalent of a graduate tax. This exchange took place in the Commons during a session on the subject of the Student Loans Company:
-
I welcome the Minister’s efforts to reform the SLC, and he will know that our Select Committee on Education is doing a value-for-money inquiry into universities. As well as looking at the management of the SLC, will the Minister use this opportunity to look at reducing the rate of interest for students, which is much higher than in many other countries in the developed world?
- Joseph Johnson
-
We keep all aspects of our student finance system under review, to ensure that it is fair and effective as a system, and that it is meeting our core objectives of removing financial barriers to access, funding our university system fairly, and sharing the costs of doing so equitably between individual students and the general taxpayer. The rate of interest is heavily subsidised. This is to be compared with unsecured personal commercial borrowings. The Bank of England benchmark reference rate for unsecured personal commercial borrowing would be well over 7%, and this is a particularly unique product, which is written off entirely after 30 years with no recourse to a borrower’s other assets, and it only enters the repayment period when people are earning more than £25,000. So it is a unique product, and it is not easy to compare any element of it with loan offerings from elsewhere in the commercial sector.
Friday, 24 November 2017
The new trains are back, but their drawbacks remain
This is an extract of evidence given by Roger Ford, a rail expert, to the Welsh Affairs Committee about the cancellation of the South Wales main line electrification:
This brief submission focuses on the current claims by Government that electro-diesel ‘bi-mode’ trains provide an acceptable alternative to full electrification of the line between Cardiff and Swansea .
These claims are not based on a detailed technical and commercial comparison of the alternatives. To be blunt, the claim that bi-mode trains will provide passengers with the same quality of service is a face-saving attempt to justify cancellation of the onward electrification from Cardiff to Swansea. The cancellation is the result of cost escalation and delayed completion of Network Rail’s Great Western Electrification Programme (GWEP).
[...]
2.0 Comparison of electric power versus diesel
2.1 In general, it is important to bear in mind that in both modes the bi-mode represents a sub-optimal solution.
With up to 10 tonnes of diesel power pack and fuel under 60% of its coaches, when running as an electric train a bi-mode is an overweight Electric Multiple Unit (EMU).
In diesel mode it is underpowered when compared with a conventional Diesel Multiple Unit (DMU) DMUs have an engine for each vehicle while at least one bi-mode vehicle will be dedicated to the equipment for electric operation – a transformer and pantograph . Performance is thus degraded in both modes by either excessive weight or lack of power.
2.2 Electric traction equipment is simpler, lighter and offers more power for a given weight compared with diesel equipment. As a result electric trains are lighter. This is reflected in the capital and operating costs.
The average cost per vehicle of recent EMU orders in the UK has been around £1.2 million. The recent contract for 25 Hitachi bi-mode trains for TransePennine Express has an average cost of £2.36 million per vehicle.
This difference is reflected in the leasing costs of the trains.
2.3 Diesel train fleets have a lower availability – the percentage of trains in a fleet in service. This stems from a number of factors including the increased maintenance required by diesel engines and the requirement for time out for refuelling . This means that for a given service level a larger fleet of diesel trains is required, increasing the cost
2.4 Electric train maintenance costs are typically 33% lower than a comparable diesel train
2.5 Energy costs of electric traction are typically 45% lower than diesel. This is the result of a number of factors in addition to the relative costs of electricity and diesel fuel.
Electric trains are lighter and thus require less energy for a given performance. In addition, electric trains can employ regenerative braking which switches the train’s electric motors to generators to slow the train. The electricity generated is returned to the National Grid. Typical energy saving in intercity type operations is 15-20%. A further advantage of electrification is that the railway is able to use whatever source of energy supplies the Grid.
2.6 The lower weight of electric trains results in lower track wear. In the case of the Hitachi Intercity Expres Programme trains, the vehicles in the electric units weigh 41 tonnes. In the bi-mode version, the weight of the diesel engine and fuel increases the vehicle weight to 50 tonnes.
The lower track wear reduces track maintenance costs which are reflected in the Variable Track Access Charges paid by the operator to Network Rail. This benefits fares and subsidy payments
2.7 Because more power can be installed electric trains have a higher performance than diesel trains. This is reflected in the forecast 15 minute journey time saving claimed when the GWR electrified service is introduced, although some of this will be due to changes in stopping patterns.
2.8 With shorter journey times, fewer trains are required to cover the timetable. Note the similar benefit from greater availability already mentioned.
2.9 Electric trains are significantly more reliable than diesel trains. For example, Siemens three most reliable EMUs are currently averaging around 100,000 miles per 3 minute delay. The Company’s equivalent DMUs are recording a creditable, by DMU standards , 26,000 miles per 3 minute delay.
This disparity is also reflected in the specification for the Hitachi trains in the Intercity Express Programme contract. The electric versions are required to achieve 50,000 miles per 3 minute delay, the bi-modes 25,000 miles per 3 minutes delay.
This brief submission focuses on the current claims by Government that electro-diesel ‘bi-mode’ trains provide an acceptable alternative to full electrification of the line between Cardiff and Swansea .
These claims are not based on a detailed technical and commercial comparison of the alternatives. To be blunt, the claim that bi-mode trains will provide passengers with the same quality of service is a face-saving attempt to justify cancellation of the onward electrification from Cardiff to Swansea. The cancellation is the result of cost escalation and delayed completion of Network Rail’s Great Western Electrification Programme (GWEP).
[...]
2.0 Comparison of electric power versus diesel
2.1 In general, it is important to bear in mind that in both modes the bi-mode represents a sub-optimal solution.
With up to 10 tonnes of diesel power pack and fuel under 60% of its coaches, when running as an electric train a bi-mode is an overweight Electric Multiple Unit (EMU).
In diesel mode it is underpowered when compared with a conventional Diesel Multiple Unit (DMU) DMUs have an engine for each vehicle while at least one bi-mode vehicle will be dedicated to the equipment for electric operation – a transformer and pantograph . Performance is thus degraded in both modes by either excessive weight or lack of power.
2.2 Electric traction equipment is simpler, lighter and offers more power for a given weight compared with diesel equipment. As a result electric trains are lighter. This is reflected in the capital and operating costs.
The average cost per vehicle of recent EMU orders in the UK has been around £1.2 million. The recent contract for 25 Hitachi bi-mode trains for TransePennine Express has an average cost of £2.36 million per vehicle.
This difference is reflected in the leasing costs of the trains.
2.3 Diesel train fleets have a lower availability – the percentage of trains in a fleet in service. This stems from a number of factors including the increased maintenance required by diesel engines and the requirement for time out for refuelling . This means that for a given service level a larger fleet of diesel trains is required, increasing the cost
2.4 Electric train maintenance costs are typically 33% lower than a comparable diesel train
2.5 Energy costs of electric traction are typically 45% lower than diesel. This is the result of a number of factors in addition to the relative costs of electricity and diesel fuel.
Electric trains are lighter and thus require less energy for a given performance. In addition, electric trains can employ regenerative braking which switches the train’s electric motors to generators to slow the train. The electricity generated is returned to the National Grid. Typical energy saving in intercity type operations is 15-20%. A further advantage of electrification is that the railway is able to use whatever source of energy supplies the Grid.
2.6 The lower weight of electric trains results in lower track wear. In the case of the Hitachi Intercity Expres Programme trains, the vehicles in the electric units weigh 41 tonnes. In the bi-mode version, the weight of the diesel engine and fuel increases the vehicle weight to 50 tonnes.
The lower track wear reduces track maintenance costs which are reflected in the Variable Track Access Charges paid by the operator to Network Rail. This benefits fares and subsidy payments
2.7 Because more power can be installed electric trains have a higher performance than diesel trains. This is reflected in the forecast 15 minute journey time saving claimed when the GWR electrified service is introduced, although some of this will be due to changes in stopping patterns.
2.8 With shorter journey times, fewer trains are required to cover the timetable. Note the similar benefit from greater availability already mentioned.
2.9 Electric trains are significantly more reliable than diesel trains. For example, Siemens three most reliable EMUs are currently averaging around 100,000 miles per 3 minute delay. The Company’s equivalent DMUs are recording a creditable, by DMU standards , 26,000 miles per 3 minute delay.
This disparity is also reflected in the specification for the Hitachi trains in the Intercity Express Programme contract. The electric versions are required to achieve 50,000 miles per 3 minute delay, the bi-modes 25,000 miles per 3 minutes delay.
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