There was a significant by-election in Blaengwrach ward yesterday. It resulted in a Plaid Cymru gain from Labour with a swing which would indicate trouble for Labour in the council elections next May, unless there is a major change in Labour's image before then.
Crocker‐Jaques, Peter Damian (Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig) 4 0.9% +0.9%
Edwards, Carolyn (Plaid Cymru ‐ The Party of Wales) 225 47.9% +3.5%
Evans, Thomas John (Independent) 58 12.4% +12.4%
Price, Sarah Ann (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 143 30.5% -20.1%
Pritchard, Richard Herbert (UKIP Wales / UKIP Cymru) 39 8.3% +8.3%
Plaid Cymru gain. Turnout 32.6%. Swing from Labour to PC 11.8%
There were other by-elections in principal authorities in the UK yesterday:
Kettering BC, Rothwell: Conservative gain from Labour
Bracknell UA, Central Sandhurst: Conservative hold
Weymouth & Portland BC, Wye Valley: Conservative hold
Braintree DC, Bumpstead: Conservative hold
St Albans BC, Clarence: LD hold
Middlesbrough UA, Central: Labour hold
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, Heacham: Independent gain from Conservative
Medway UA, Strood South: Conservative gain from UKIP
Braintree DC, Witham North: Labour gain from Conservative
Labour should not be losing any seats to the government party at this point in the electoral cycle, even in Tory heartlands. The other point of interest is the loss by UKIP in an area in which they appeared to be strong at the 2015 general election.
Oh, and there was a result in the Westminster constituency of Witney, too. There was a 19.3% swing from Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. Just for fun, as Peter Snow used to say, I fed this into UK-Elect and produced the forecast on this simple swing that the Conservatives would be wiped out completely if an election were held now on the current boundaries. Of course, this does not allow for the decline in the UKIP vote and the fact that Labour support has become patchy.