Friday, 21 October 2016

By-election bumper bundle

There was a significant by-election in Blaengwrach ward yesterday. It resulted in a Plaid Cymru gain from Labour with a swing which would indicate trouble for Labour in the council elections next May, unless there is a major change in Labour's image before then.

Crocker‐Jaques, Peter Damian (Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig)      4  0.9%     +0.9%
Edwards, Carolyn (Plaid Cymru ‐ The Party of Wales)                                   225 47.9%     +3.5%
Evans, Thomas John (Independent)                                                                58  12.4%   +12.4%
Price, Sarah Ann (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)                                          143  30.5%    -20.1%
Pritchard, Richard Herbert (UKIP Wales / UKIP Cymru)                                 39    8.3%    +8.3%
Plaid Cymru gain. Turnout 32.6%. Swing from Labour to PC 11.8%

There were other by-elections in principal authorities in the UK yesterday:
Kettering BC, Rothwell: Conservative gain from Labour 
Bracknell UA, Central Sandhurst: Conservative hold 
Weymouth & Portland BC, Wye Valley: Conservative hold 
Braintree DC, Bumpstead: Conservative hold 
St Albans BC, Clarence: LD hold 
Middlesbrough UA, Central: Labour hold 
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, Heacham: Independent gain from Conservative 
Medway UA, Strood South: Conservative gain from UKIP
Braintree DC, Witham North: Labour gain from Conservative
Labour should not be losing any seats to the government party at this point in the electoral cycle, even in Tory heartlands. The other point of interest is the loss by UKIP in an area in which they appeared to be strong at the 2015 general election.

Oh, and there was a result in the Westminster constituency of Witney, too. There was a 19.3% swing from Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. Just for fun, as Peter Snow used to say, I fed this into UK-Elect and produced the forecast on this simple swing that the Conservatives would be wiped out completely if an election were held now on the current boundaries. Of course, this does not allow for the decline in the UKIP vote and the fact that Labour support has become patchy.


Anonymous said...

I have been reading you for years FFranc and it seems increasingly clear that you belong in Plaid.

Frank Little said...

I obviously have not made my political philosophy clear, and must do something to rectify that. But two things should have been obvious: I am not a socialist, and socialism has been Plaid's key selling-point since I have been involved in political campaigning; and I do not believe in the long-term aim of the nationalist party, complete independence.

Stan said...

I wonder if Anonymous is pulling your leg, Frank?

It was a good result for PC in Blaengwrach but fully expected, in my opinion. Well known local candidate with previous council experience. And there's a massive kick against the Establishment or status quo going on across the UK which I think partly explains the EU referendum result.

But next year's local elections are going to be a real test for Labour. There's a lot of wards they'll be lucky to hang on in.