Thursday, 10 November 2016

Military alignment

If I have one big concern about the Trump presidency, it is that it will give up on the defence of our friends on the eastern border of the EU. Clearly, one of Trump's first acts in January will be to officially recognise the takeover of Crimea and eastern Ukraine by his butty Volodya Putin. He has vowed to reduce his support for NATO on the grounds that not enough European nations (Republicans made a point of excepting us from this stricture) are not contributing their fair share. Since the federal deficit is bound to increase if he stands by his fiscal manifesto, he is going to have to find ways of narrowing the gap. Cancelling Obamacare on its own is not going to be enough, so one should not doubt that he will.follow through on his threat to NATO.

Besides, the US attention was already shifting towards China as a potential enemy rather than Russia. Trump may even seek an anti-China (and anti-Korea) alliance with Putin.

If Trump takes his eye off Europe, it is all the more important for the UK, in or out of the EU, to assert its support for Georgia and the Baltic States.

No comments: