I have just caught up with a discussion about what happens if there is a "clean break" between the UK and the other 27 EU members. The YouTube links are https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Axm7ErLuw0 , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtkP3Hkc1cM and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8 The series distils much of what has gone before in the Three Blokes in the Pub series and in the last podcast draws on experience from business people in the audience, too.
We are now starting to see the practical effects on businesses exporting to mainland Europe. Goods and services which take time to prepare and whose delivery dates fall after the withdrawal date in March next year cannot be provided by UK suppliers.
The Conservative party's Brexit pitch from Birmingham was on BBC-Parliament this morning. One speaker was honest enough to admit that around 300,000 UK businesses trade with the rest of the EU and that they would be seriously affected by Brexit, probably put out of business altogether by a no-deal withdrawal. (In another place, John Redwood MP has suggested that they should start running their businesses down now.) However, the man went on, these are a minority of businesses in the country, we do most trade internally and we have a vibrant hospitality sector. Having thrown exporters and their employees out of work, that puts a heck of a burden on tourism to provide income for our hotels, B&Bs and brewers, even allowing for a continuing fall in the value of sterling.
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Ireland is now so closely interlinked, the Republic with Northern Ireland, and both with England, Scotland and Wales that any Brexit which did not include frictionless trade will be devastating. So says a former ambassador for the Republic. Most chillingly, he predicted that splinter groups from the IRA and from the loyalist paramilitary organisations are itching to take the opportunity of any sort of border for violent reprisals. Already, Brexit has become a sectarian issue in Northern Ireland. The lecture hosted by Cardiff University is on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmjTPr8j5p4.
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