Catching up on the EU debate

It was a quiet shopping day in Neath yesterday, and the demonstration by Welsh Liberal Democrats and other anti-Brexiteers, including Labour, was correspondingly low-key. On the positive side, it meant that there was no need for the three police officers in Market Street clearly posted to prevent the sort of far-right reaction threatened by transport minister Chris Grayling.

While I was there, the only argument I had was with a gentleman who protested that the people had voted in 2016 and that was that. It is an understandable point of view; David Cameron had stated that he would abide by the majority vote and on the day after the referendum would begin to oversee the UK's withdrawal from the EU. Voters were led to believe that the cases for either side of the referendum were fairly put, and that the  powers-that-be knew what they were doing and could be trusted to just get on with it.

In the event, Cameron dithered and then resigned rather than "get on with it". It also transpired that the Leave side had not only exaggerated the size of the UK's contribution to the EU budget and lied about the ability of the UK to prevent "benefit tourism", it had also broken electoral law and misused personal data, illegally obtained.

We live in a representative democracy. We elect people we trust to collectively make the best decisions on our behalf. Our MPs are a cross-section of society, not special in themselves, but in a special situation. They have access to the wisdom and experience of their fellow members, to an excellent library and research service and to the deliberations of select committees, who can command the attendance of expert witnesses. So they are better informed than the vast majority of their electors. It is no shame to say that, in the light of what they now know about the implications of withdrawal, it was a mistake to issue the Article 50 letter or at least set such an impractical timetable for leaving. Over the Iraq war, the House of Commons accepted that it had been lied to by apparently impeccable sources; it can do something similar over Brexit. 

The economic implications

Over the two-and-a-half years since the referendum it has also become painfully clear that few people - and I include Remainers like myself - realised what an intricate web of movement of goods, including vehicle and other parts, had been built up during our membership of the EC/EEC/EU thanks to the abolition of red tape. Customs clearance between the EU and third countries involves more than mere tariffs. It was the disruption of this web which Dr Ralf Speth, chairman of Jaguar Land-Rover and others including academic experts warned against last autumn. Their specific fear was for a "hard Brexit" (no agreed withdrawal deal with the rest of the EU), but it seems to me that any withdrawal which sees the UK outside a single market and customs union will impede the "just-in-time" systems which manufacturers with plants in different nations rely upon.

As if on cue, JLR has announced further job cuts. The slow-down in the Chinese market and the panic of potential diesel buyers (in spite of new stringent standards) have been the major factors, but Brexit was also cited by JLR in the company's latest statement. Ford's Bridgend factory, which supplies engines to Jaguar, was hit by the JLR retrenchment and also by a review of Ford's European operations, in which the supply chain was a significant consideration. The scale of losses in Bridgend has not yet been confirmed, but most news outlets agree that eventually 1,000 jobs will go.

There is a story circulating on Facebook that the EU gave money to JLR to set up competing assembly lines in Slovakia. This is not true. The European Commission's only involvement was to rule on Slovakia's decision to give state aid to the company. In this, the Commission was in fact protecting factories in other parts of the EU, including the UK, from unfair competition. The EU rules on state aid are strict. Slovakia convinced the Commission that in this case the aid was necessary for Jaguar Land Rover to invest in Europe rather than in Mexico.

There are authoritative reports from Japan that Hitachi's board is likely to decide to suspend all work on the Wylfa Newydd nuclear plant on Anglesey. Rising construction costs are cited, but there is "mutter from the gutter" that Japanese banks which are presumably the source of the loans enabling the project have lost faith in the UK economy post-Brexit.