Wednesday, 22 May 2019

May's impasse

Guido lists the ten bullet points of Mrs May's final withdrawal offer. It seems to me that she goes as far as is possible, compatible with the EU's constitution, to fulfilling the rosy promises held out by the Leave proponents in 2016. The fact that it still contains words like "seek" and "objective" underlines the point that Leavers could never guarantee their projected rosy economic future outside the EU.

That is all before considering the benefits of the Union which we will miss: the security which guaranteed cooperation between juridictions and police give us, the freedom of UK citizens to work anywhere within Europe and the opportunities for young people to travel widely and educate themselves. There is no mention of the clout which the EU has when it comes to dealing with multi-national corporations.

The cost to British industry of leaving EU facilities is illustrated by the withdrawal of permits under the Emissions Trading Scheme which started the British Steel emergency. There will be others, not all of which can be recovered by post-withdrawal negotiation.

It skirts the probability that, whatever happens to the border, the network that has been built up between the north and south of Ireland in transport and power will be split to the detriment of both parts. The fudge over the border itself will lead to either unification or further conflict in the North.

After years of talks with the EU27, informal discussions with possible trading partners and weeks of attempting to find common ground with the official opposition, the prime minister has still not found a withdrawal deal which is satisfactory. When it is rejected by the House, as it will be, she must swallow her pride and revoke the Article 50 letter. Industry, commerce and the people of Ireland will have certainty restored and the silent majority in Britain will heave a sigh of relief.

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