Sunday, 29 November 2020

Two thoughts on the Sunak financial statement

 Presumably to anticipate objections to the high level of borrowing that he proposes, chancellor Rishi Sunak has thrown red meat to his more isolationist colleagues on the government benches and to the "red wall" voters who turned against Labour as well as the EU in the form of a cut in the proportion of international aid mandated by law. What he did not point out was that our overseas development fund would automatically fall as our national income falls. So the 0.5% is a cut upon a cut. Perhaps he did not want to draw attention to the impact which Brexit will have on out national finances next yeas and for a few years to come.

Sunak did not as had been trailed announce a cut or a pause in the application of the pensions triple lock which is probably the last remaining bequest of the Liberal Democrats in coalition. However, he is proposing a reformulation of the RPI (the retail prices index, though it now covers much more than retails). Commentators predict that this will result in the annual up-rating of company and other institutional pensions resulting in lower outcomes. Mathematicians tell me that RPI is flawed - there is apparently a built-in bug which exaggerates slight rises - and that the CPI (consumer prices index) is more robust. However, the latter does not include house prices. So, some overhaul is clearly necessary but against an inflation rate which will surely climb steeply next year, whether or not there is to be a deal with the EU, many pensioners are going to cry "foul!".


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