Wednesday 4 November 2020

US general election

At the time of writing, the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. The presidential race is too close to call and will almost certainly come down to the count of postal votes, possibly lasting until Friday. Media have assumed that the postal poll in Pennsylvania will favour Biden, but results  on the day so far suggest that the proportion of Democrat votes there may not be enough to put the state in Biden's pocket. 

I am disappointed that there has not been enough UK broadcast coverage of the Congressional races. However, it seems that the Senate will remain Republican and the House of Representatives Democrat, so whoever is in the White House, US government is in for at least two more years of "co-habitation".

Stock markets do not like uncertainty. So the recent surge in exchanges round the world, based on opinion polling that there would be a decisive result today, is going to be checked. I would also expect the currency market to be volatile for the next three days.

[Update at 8:50 GMT: BBC World Service has just come through with an update on both Congressional results so far and on a few interesting propositions. It seems that language in the Nebraska Constitution permitting slavery as a punishment will be removed.]


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