Myanmar military coup had a forerunner

 The pretext for the military takeover in Myanmar and the arrest of government members and officials was of course specious. The overwhelming majority given to the National League for Democracy in the November elections could hardly have been achieved by fraud without it being obvious at the time. In fact, international observers, including the respected Carter Commission, observed no significant irregularities. The outcome credibly reflected the will of the people.

Some correspondents have drawn parallels with Donald Trump's unsuccessful attempt to prevent the inauguration of President Biden on similar, and equally dubious, grounds. But there is another country where insurgents cite electoral fraud. The UN has endorsed the result of the latest ballot in the Central African Republic, but it may be overturned by military force. CAR's future clearly hangs in the balance.

The closest recent analogue to Myanmar is Egypt. The military have been in charge there since the revolution which overthrew the monarchy in 1952. They not only hold civil power but also control large swathes of the economy. There was a brief glimmer of democracy in the wake of the Arab Spring, but a free vote returned a president - Mohammed Morsi - and a Muslim Brotherhood dominated government of which the army plutocrats did not approve.  So rather than wait for another election, they mounted a counter-revolution. This coup did not interrupt the flow of financial support from the USA. Perhaps Myanmar's c-in-c is hoping that, in spite of the rhetoric, the West will continue to support Burmese institutions. Signs so far are that he will be disappointed.

It is generally accepted that the Myanmar military is close to China. Reporters have drawn attention to the fact that shortly before the coup, the Chinese foreign minister visited Myanmar. He did meet Aung San Suu Kyi and signed some infrastructure deals with her, but afterwards met the man who went on to lead the revolution.

On the other hand, there are respected commentators who believe that China will not want to see a Myanmar regime which is clearly at odds with its people. They say that China appreciates stability and that will only come with a return to democracy.