Hungary's parliamentary election system has elements of proportionality in it, but is even more weighted towards the party wining first-past-the-post seats than the Welsh one. In those circumstances, the parties opposing Viktor Orban's avowedly non-liberal government have felt compelled to concentrate on a single challenger in next spring's general election.
First signs were that the newly-elected mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karacsony, would be that person. However, in the first round of voting to choose a joint candidate, the 44-year-old joint leader of the liberal/Green Dialogue party has been edged out by MEP Klára Dobrev, a vice-president of the European Parliament. A run-off round of voting is currently under way and it will be interesting to see where the votes of the third-placed conservative candidate will go.
If Dobrey wins, it is likely that Orban will (in addition to his continuing anti-LGBT and dog-whistle racist and anti-Semitic messages) fight on the ground of plucky little Hungary against the overweening European Union. The Commission has blocked funds to the nation because of Hungary's insufficient fight against corruption and the lack of independence of the judiciary. But it's not just the EU which is unhappy with Hungary's authoritarian turn: three of our old friends in the Free Trade Area have withdrawn funds.
If Karacsony is the "Spitzenkandidat" then it will no doubt be the country against the Big City - Orban has put it on record that he hates Budapest.
One would like to think that the combined opposition will win in 2022 and bring Hungary back in line with EU norms, but the success of populism over economic reality in our own country must give us pause.
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