The new cold war players

 The easily-replicated AK-47 "democratised" war on the ground as many too-successful terrorist groups have shown. Now the ingenuity of designers in Turkey and Iran threatens to do the same for the war from the air. 

Patrick Cockburn writes that at the time of the Iraq wars only the Americans had

the capacity to quickly cripple a country's infrastructure, beginning with its electric-power system. Even in a major oil producer like Iraq, petrol and diesel became scarce after the refineries were destroyed. For many years, it was only the US that possessed large numbers of precision-guided weapons capable of hitting any target accurately at long distance.

Other countries have since made successful efforts to catch up, notably Turkey and Iran, which have turned themselves into what some military specialists call "drone superpowers". 

[...]

On a single night, drones and cruise missiles - almost certainly launched by the Iranians, although they deny it - hit Saudi Arabia's oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais with great accuracy. Saudi oil output was cut by 50 per cent and world oil prices surged. Not only was the damage great and vastly expensive to repair; but much of it had been caused by drones costing as little as $15,000 each.

The Russians have tacitly admitted that these bargain-basement missiles are more effective than the products of their state munitions industry. Ukraine is suffering as a result of Putin's purchase of "kamikaze" drones from Iran - or was it Turkey? Iran denies the sale. 

Blackouts are becoming familiar in Ukrainian cities and lack of power also affects water and sewage systems. Much can be repaired and Ukraine is looking for more and better anti-aircraft equipment, but swarms of drones and less frequent cruise missiles will overwhelm almost any defence, however sophisticated it may be.

There is a warning here for our sophisticated defence industry and the strategy which depends on it. Our position as an offshore island surrounded by (militarily) friendly nations is at present a defence against the limited range of a squadron of these predator drones (though we may have to increase our vigilance against "trawlers" hosting a couple of them along with their radar). However, things may change.