The triple-lock tide looks irresistible

 Regular readers will know of my personal interest in the state pension guarantee, which was suspended last year. There is also a political interest in that the triple-lock was a Liberal Democrat measure which was brought to the coalition in 2010 against initial resistance by the Conservatives, who had proposed a much meaner mechanism for uprating pensions.

It was interesting to see in yesterday's debate in the House of Commons how the triple-lock has been accepted by all sides. Labour see themselves as the great defenders of the policy, Conservative back-benchers endorsed it and the government speakers claimed credit for a better record on pensions that the previous Labour government, largely as a result of the triple-lock, though without naming it. Wendy Chamberlain for the Liberal Democrats diplomatically refrained from making political capital from the true origins of the policy.

As many speakers pointed out, the value of the state pension may have increased somewhat in cash terms, but has fallen back in real terms, that is, after taking inflation into account. However, it was left to the SNP's Alan Brown to draw the bigger picture:

When we look at the UK in the round, we see that it is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Unfortunately, that inequality continues during retirement. The Gini coefficient shows that the UK is 14th out of 14 north-west European countries. It is the same for the S80:S20 quintile share ratio; when we compare the ratio of the poorest to the richest, the UK has by far the worst ratio and is again 14th out of 14. Scandinavian countries—all small, independent countries—lead the way on these measures.

Poorer pay and lower incomes for those struggling also means that later on in life they are less likely to have private pensions and so are reliant on the UK state pension. Again, the UK state pension fails in comparison with those of other countries. When we look at the proportion of earnings derived from state pensions, the UK sits 30th out of 37 OECD countries. I understand that there is an argument that it can be good to move away from dependence on state pensions, but the UK is clearly among outlier countries near the bottom of the pile, and way below the OECD average. Many people are using occupational pensions and capital as sources of income, but that increases inequality in pension age for those without access to such means.

There was a farcical end to the debate as the government resorted to a ploy which has become all too frequent since 2012: Conservatives forced a division on the Opposition's motion, but then declined to vote. We await the chancellor's financial statement next week, but he can surely not resist the tide of support for restitution of the guarantee.