Future for jobs looks twice as bad for Wales as for England

The latest KPMG Labour Market Outlook shows a welcome rise in expectations of new hirings in the private sector in the UK as a whole, while the public sector is expecting to continue to sack people. This is itself is bad news for Wales, which has a large public sector, but worse news is that even commercial employers in Wales are not optimistic, and employment is predicted to continue to fall in the next quarter.

Constructive engagement with the EU

This article by Catherine Bearder MEP shows the distinction between Liberal Democrats and the Labservative parties in the EU. Our MEPs are contributing to the improvement of EU policy and directives, not just accepting goodies from Europe then shouting from the sidelines when something happens they don't like. Sitting in on the fringe debates at party conference, I was struck by the way our representatives are punching above their weight in the European Parliament. (I hope Sharon Bowles does not take that as meant literally.)  The article also points up the lack of involvement by Labour ministers who, after all, are part of the final decision-making body in the EU.

This all reminds me: why do we not hear more about the work of our local MEP, Derek Vaughan, after his promise to make Neath more visible in Europe, and Europe more visible in Wales?

Murdoch disowns Murdoch

I speculated in another place that, as David Cameron's opinion poll ratings stubbornly refused to rise to a level which would indicate an overall majority, Rupert Murdoch, desperate to preserve his reputation as ever the champion of the winning side ("the Sun wot won it" etc.) would instruct his newspapers to fight an even more dirty fight. Instead, he has let it be known that he was against backing Cameron in the first place. According to Private Eye, Sir Rupert "only backed Cameron with deep reluctance after months of badgering from Rebekah [Wade, a News International editor] and [son] James."

Incidentally, there is a superb centre spread in the "Election Special" Eye mocking the anti-Clegg smears which appeared in the popular press after the first TV debate.

A greater and continuing oil scandal

The media are beginning to wake up to the probable dire effects of the explosion in an oil rig off the coast of Louisiana (see earlier posting). The worrying news today is that experts have as yet failed to cap the well. It cannot be a coincidence that the rig's operation was outsourced by BP, which has been implicated in earlier accidents in Alaska and Texas.

The Independent yesterday drew attention to an older scandal which has still not been addressed: the damage to human and natural resources, the waste of energy and the probable contribution to Earth's greenhouse gas burden, in Nigeria. The article is headed: "Visible from space, deadly on Earth: the gas flares of Nigeria", which neatly sums up an issue which is anything but neat.

A Julian Bream story

John Amis recounts: " mutual friend John Warrack went with Julian to the Royal Academy show one year and they went into one room dominated by a large nude. Julian:'Christ, I know ‘er'. Silence in that room and bystanders waited for the next pronouncement. 'What a smashing pair of plonkers'."

More at John Amis online.

Campaign for a servicemen's PTSD recovery centre in Wales

Gelli Aur (Golden Grove) has become available to a charity which seeks to heal the mental wounds of our men & women who have served in Afghanistan and other conflicts - provided the money can be raised to buy the mansion. It seems to be a rare opportunity not only to save a historic Welsh building while it is still basically sound, and to do something merciful and constructive for our brave service people.

A guest article by Sir Hardly Anyone

Sir Hardly Anyone is the outgoing Conservative MP for an English county whose name he cannot quite recall at present, and a former contributor to BBC Radio's "Week Ending" programme. His contribution is dictated to his prospective successor, Miss Tamsin Aylist-Sloane.

I am grateful to Frederick Little for the opportunity to make a modest contribution to the debate on the British electoral system. I am informed that his "Blag" is read by millions around the world via the wonders of the Interweb. If my message is read by only a modicum of the people who count in this country, it will have done some good.

The subject of proportional representation has once more raised its ugly head. The powers that be have successfully resisted its siren call since the early years of the century when that Welsh oik Lloyd George attempted to foist it on us, along with those other foreign nonsenses, old age pensions, accident insurance and the wages councils, which nearly ruined my poor dear father ... sorry, drifting off there ... where was I? Oh yes, foreign imports.

It is said that we are alone in the civilised world in adhering to what I believe is now described, in today's argot, as "first past the post". (I have long suspected that political journalists are drawn from the ranks of those who have failed to succeed as racing tipsters.) That is not correct. Our cousins across the Atlantic have retained the traditional electoral system which we bequeathed them, along with Imperial measures, and they are all the better for it.  If the tried and trusted traditional system of voting is good enough for Great Britain and the United States of America, the two greatest nations on God's earth, why should we change it?

However, the new leader of the Liberal party, Nick Clegg (what an oafish name) is attracting more support than the Liberals have had for many a long year. It is said that he may hold the balance of power after the next general election, and that he will use this to force a change in the electoral system. This is only to be expected from an old boy of that nest of dangerous radicals, Westminster School, which also produced, may I remind you, Michael Flanders and Donald Swann.

Resist, good people! If we adopted proportional representation, we would no longer have working majorities in the House of Commons. No more could a British Prime Minister count on loyal support for actions guaranteeing world peace, like the ousting of dictators like Madman Hussain and the eradication of hundreds of thousands of his fanatical supporters. No more could a British Prime Minister have the ability to correct the injustices of local government taxation, whereby my family paid hundreds of times more hard-earned money to the council than some "worker" who did not have enough get-up-and-go to lift himself and his family out of ... sorry ... anyway, the rating system had to go. What is fairer than each man making the same contribution? I am only sorry that wets like Heseltine and Major did not have the backbone to resist the mob. Their Council Tax compromise is at least preferable to the iniquitous Local Income Tax, which is another abortion which would be forced on us should Clegg have his way.

My friends point out that the system occasionally fails. Socialists such as Callaghan and Brown sometimes reach the top of the greasy pole. I am not unaware of these dangers, but these may be removed by two simple measures.

Firstly, the existing constituencies must be redrawn. We must return to the days when county constituencies were the norm and industrial towns mere adjuncts.

Secondly, this socialist experiment of paying MPs must end. It has only resulted in a lower class of member scrabbling around for yet more money, with results which are plain to see. Far better to have a House comprising those of independent means and thus of independent mind. The best of us derive our living from the land but I do not despise those who come from trade, like our own dear Margaret.

So, vote Conservative on May 6th! At a pinch, if it is the only way to keep a Liberal out, vote socialist. At least these Labour johnnies know their place and respect our traditions.

Now, my dear, the choice of restaurant is yours.  The memsahib is not expecting me back at the Hall until tomorrow, so perhaps we can take in a show this evening?

Cameron's two bad propositions

I don't need to write the piece I was planning about David Cameron's latest gimmick: a general election after six months if a prime minister is replaced while in office. Richard Baum has already written clearly why this further attempt to Americanise our system of government is wrong. I would only add that the Great British Public is not keen on too many elections, as turnout figures since 1997 show. Only when there is obviously a great change in the offing, as in this year, is there great enthusiasm for voting. Therefore, a ballot on a replacement prime minister is unlikely to give a firm endorsement.

His (and those of Osborne and, sadly, Ken Clarke) more potentially dangerous utterances concerned a "hung" parliament. For reasons I have already laid out, this outcome of the general election is almost certain. That logic applied even before the boost given to my party by the TV debates. Therefore, to say that the international economic community will inevitably downgrade the UK's standing if Westminster goes to "No Overall Control" is irresponsible. The Conservatives were quick to accuse the then Labour opposition of "talking the country down" in 1994 when the economic situation is not as fraught as it is now, so they should have more sense. Thankfully, the markets, which are usually quick to factor in political developments, are not unduly perturbed.

Besides, this implicit attack on the Liberal Democrats may have an unwished for effect, that of strengthening Labour. If voters took it seriously, they may opt for the certainty of what they know, which in the majority of seats would mean returning a Labour member, rather than change.