Friday, 24 June 2016

An uncertain future

The results of the EU referendum as they came through last night and through the early hours were depressing but not a total surprise. A week ago, a straw poll on a media appreciation panel showed 48% to 38% in favour of  Leave with 14% undecided. A vigorous correspondence on a local online medium was about ten to one (me) against staying in the EU. It has been obvious for some time that the man and woman in the Welsh street take their political information from the Sun, Mail and Express.

As predicted, the immediate outcome was a plunge in the value of sterling and the euro. Shares will open lower on the London Stock Exchange. There will be ups and downs before the currency and stock markets settle, but at what level?

The best future for the UK outside the EU will be in the European Economic Area alongside Norway. However, what the Leave voters most objected to were the contribution from the UK Treasury and the free movement of labour, both of which are implicit in the the Norway model. Whoever does the negotiating for the UK - and I cannot see the present ministerial team continuing long - has a very difficult hand to play.

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