Sunday, 12 August 2018

The tide may have turned against Brexit

The Observer today published analysis by Focaldata of YouGov soundings which shows that most of the urban constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 now have a majority in favour of Remain. (There is no sign of any change in rural constituencies, but this may just be down to insufficient data.) Aberavon and Neath are two of those constituencies. The reactions of Stephen Kinnock (a known supporter of EU membership, who nevertheless has voted the Corbyn Eurosceptic line so far) and Christina Rees (a Corbyn loyalist) in the next few days should be interesting.

Part of the swing may be down to a realisation that the various Leave campaigns lied during the referendum campaign and that things are getting worse, not better, since 2016. This is in spite of the main news provider in the country not giving a full picture of the UK's performance relative to the rest of the EU in the last two years.

The main reason for the change is, in my opinion, summed up in the Guardian's special report yesterday from Swansea. It has become obvious to even the most casual observer of current affairs that the government just does not know what it is doing in persisting with Brexit.

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