Wednesday 7 August 2019

Dominic Cummings is wrong: MPs can stop ‘no deal’

That was the headline on a rebuttal by InFacts, an organisation set up to counter the lies put out by the master-minds of the Brexit campaigns and their more radical supporters. The logic is appealing, but it does rely on a back-stop of Her Majesty being pro-active in a way which has not been seen since George V blocked the UK's offering asylum to his Romanov cousins.

More importantly, if the Commons wishes to avoid involving Buckingham Palace in a constitutional crisis, it must "pass legislation forcing Johnson to ask for extra time to hold a referendum – and only turn to a no-confidence vote if that fails. If the legislation route works, Cummings’ whole scheme falls apart". However, the Commons has yet shown no sign of intestinal fortitude when it comes to avoiding Brexit as the farcical votes in March, before the last "absolute" deadline, showed.

There is a seductive school of thought that it is not the end of the UK economy if we are forced to leave on 31st October, because it is possible under EU rules to apply to re-join. This idea is probably encouraged by Brexiteers who are well aware that the terms for a new nation joining the EU will be a political anathema. There would be no opt-outs and we might well have to accept the euro and Schengen. Even if a UK government did make the application, it is virtually certain that France at least would block our readmission. (Acceptance of a new member requires unanimity.)

So Leave really does mean Leave. I am fairly confident that the Queen will not allow Johnson and his gang to do anything outright undemocratic but the Palace dare not go further and back one side against the other. It is up to our elected representatives to act decisively for what is best for the nations of the UK. I am not confident.

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