Normal Welsh Liberal service is resumed

That devastating break in liberal representation from Wales which occurred in the 2017 general election is at an end. From 1885 until the last general election, when Plaid Cymru won Ceredigion, Wales had always returned a Liberal or Liberal Democrat MP.  BBC describes Jane Dodds' retaking Brecon and Radnorshire as a "narrow" victory. A thousand votes is not narrow in Liberal Democrat terms, it seems to me, but surely the headline figure ought to be the twelve per cent swing from the Conservatives. The full figures (together with those from a couple of council by-elections) are on Liberal Democrat Voice.

There are two other aspects of the B&R win which should be highlighted. Firstly, Jane's success will bring the already healthy female representation on the Liberal Democrat benches up to 42%. With so many women candidates already declared in winnable seats (including Sheffield Hallam, which will produce a by-election in the autumn if a general election does not intervene) the future of a more gender-balanced parliamentary party seems assured.

Secondly, Jane is distinctly on the social liberal wing of the party. She will temper any drift to more conservative politics if, as seems likely, former Conservative MPs defect to the Liberal Democrats. She will carry her fight against the malign effects of Universal Credit, which she observed in her day job, on to the floor of the House and, one hopes, into a Select Committee.

That social conscience must have been a factor in winning back the Labour-inclined voters we lost in 2015 as a reaction to our going into coalition in Westminster. The Corbyn factor sealed Tom Davies' fate. The Labour candidate finished a remote fourth, surely the worst performance in this constituency since the modern Labour party was founded. Welsh Labour may have been consoling themselves that pathetic performances in recent local by-elections would be compensated for by a return to the fold in parliamentary elections. Mark Drakeford and his advisors must now be seriously concerned.

More ominous is the arithmetic on the atavistic side of politics. The sum of Conservative and Brexit votes in B&R was greater than the Liberal Democrats'. The European policies of both Brexit (which describes itself as a party, but is not constituted as such) and the Conservative Party are now practically indistinguishable. The Brexit leader is sure to point out to the current prime minister that an anti-EU alliance at the next  election, combining their two votes, will do better than Conservatism on its own. Conservative leaders have so far resisted such blandishments, which would involve Conservative candidates standing down in some seats, but Boris Johnson is a stranger to scruples and may well yield.