It looks as if the Liberal Democrat campaigns people were expecting a general election some time later this year, when the implications of our leaving the EU would have been clearer and bearing down on the people who voted Leave in the belief that things could not get worse for them. The main pitch, of calling a halt to Article 50 talks, with a tweak to call a further referendum in order to accommodate MPs in Vote Leave constituencies, would have been laid down. Candidates were certainly put in place ready for a snap election.
In the event, Mrs May pulled the trigger early. Rather than rejigging the campaign to concentrate on the social issues which were so rewarding for Mr Corbyn, and on which our proposals were not only better but also more affordable, it was clearly decided it was simpler to go ahead with the existing template, less effective though that would be at this stage of the EU 27 talks. I guess that we would still have been squeezed in the presidential campaign deliberately launched by Mrs May, in which the media left and right were all complicit, but we might have saved or even gained a few seats in Wales and other Leave areas.
Tuesday, 13 June 2017
Monday, 12 June 2017
Jeremy Corbyn
Let us be clear: Jeremy Corbyn did not win the general election, nor have enough like-minded MPs in the new parliament to form a viable coalition.
Having said that, his qualities which attracted so many new members to the Labour party after his election as leader obviously enthused a large minority of voters, especially young voters. I was one of the first to welcome not only his standing in that leadership election (which was by the skin of his teeth) but his success as at last giving Labour some point in existing. It has paid off for Labour. Ironically, his fiercest critics within the party have now come to appreciate him while I have come to find fault with his swithering where he used to be so firm, particularly on nuclear weapons and the EU. These are matters on which the government needs the strongest opposition, yet Corbyn seems to have fallen in with the May line on both.
Corbyn is still not liked or trusted by New Labour. There is open hostility to Theresa May, not only from Conservative commentators and ex-MPs but also from current members. Leanne Wood is said to have been rescued by the result in Ceredigion. Nicola Sturgeon may be under pressure in spite of delivering the second-best SNP Westminster tally in the party's history. Tim Farron is the most popular leader of his party, in spite of the Telegraph's stirring. If only we could translate that into votes as Corbyn has done.
Having said that, his qualities which attracted so many new members to the Labour party after his election as leader obviously enthused a large minority of voters, especially young voters. I was one of the first to welcome not only his standing in that leadership election (which was by the skin of his teeth) but his success as at last giving Labour some point in existing. It has paid off for Labour. Ironically, his fiercest critics within the party have now come to appreciate him while I have come to find fault with his swithering where he used to be so firm, particularly on nuclear weapons and the EU. These are matters on which the government needs the strongest opposition, yet Corbyn seems to have fallen in with the May line on both.
Corbyn is still not liked or trusted by New Labour. There is open hostility to Theresa May, not only from Conservative commentators and ex-MPs but also from current members. Leanne Wood is said to have been rescued by the result in Ceredigion. Nicola Sturgeon may be under pressure in spite of delivering the second-best SNP Westminster tally in the party's history. Tim Farron is the most popular leader of his party, in spite of the Telegraph's stirring. If only we could translate that into votes as Corbyn has done.
Sunday, 11 June 2017
Picking up more post-election threads
Paul Walter, in his Liberal Voice piece, nails so many issues.
The Conservative party likes to boast that it, combined with our FPTP electoral system, provides strong and stable government. Well, a fat lot of strength and stability the Tory party and FPTP system have given us in the last two years!
- a point that could equally be made about the last Major government, not to mention Wilson/Callaghan from 1974 to 1979.
We’ve had two Prime Ministers, Cameron and May, who will have historians squabbling for years as to whether they are the worst or second worst or third worst Prime Ministers in the history of this country!
No argument there.
David Cameron put party before country when he promised an EU referendum, ending with his political shredding.
Here I part company with Paul. A referendum was necessary, especially as we Liberal Democrats had already floated the idea in the 1990s. It should, however, have been held in the early years of the coalition government (instead of that pointless AV affair) while the arguments could still have been discussed for the most part dispassionately and the Labour leadership's stance was unambiguous. Moreover, the electors should have been told that, constitutionally, they were giving an opinion not a final judgment. This rested with parliament, although if there was a more than 75% vote for a change (the usual percentage for constitutional amendments in clubs and societies throughout the land), the government would have taken notice.
I always told anyone who would listen that May’s decision to call an election was the right thing for the country. After the June 23rd 2016 referendum we needed a national democratic event to sort-out the situation. So I commend May for calling the election [...]. The rub is that May didn’t call the election for the good of the country, she called it for the good of herself.
- calling it not straight away, but delaying it until it caused maximum damage constitutionally, confusing the issues in the local government elections. It had one no doubt desired effect, hitting the smaller parties in the pocket and, with the presidential-style media blitz, squeezing their vote.
The result of the election gives me great reason for optimism. The arrangement with the DUP won’t last five years. It is constitutionally correct that the make-up of Parliament dictates the government. And the DUP will be involved long enough to stop a hard Brexit by means of keeping the porous Irish border. Dependent on which parties provide the deputy speakers, Theresa May will have a working majority of 8-10. With by-elections happening on average at the rate of 2-3 a year, that isn’t going to last her five years, plus there are bound to be enormous complications in Ireland, because of the DUP’s involvement in sustaining the UK government.
Another factor will be the tension between the DUP members who follow an old-time religion and Mrs May's loyal unionists in Scotland who gained thirteen seats for her and who are led by an out gay woman.
At least the UK will have a working and continuing administration for the time being, which will calm the international money markets.
it is becoming more and more crazy that this country has not, at least as an interim “holding” solution, gone for the Norway (EEA/EFTA) option. The ludicrous and (I believe) unconstitutional decision by Theresa May to rule out membership of the Single Market, and even, unbelievably, the Customs Union, was one of the most heinous acts of any British Prime Minister ever. The sooner we come to our senses and realise that EEA/EFTA memberships offers us a temporary sanctuary while we compose ourselves, the better.
For the sake of commerce, industry and agriculture, this is the only practical solution, although it involves accepting free movement of labour, which will not please a sizeable section of the Leave vote. Also disgruntled would be the black end of the financial services industry, which was looking forward to a stop to and possible reversal of regulation. It does, however, satisfy the other Leavers' demands, that EU directives do not have to be passed into UK law.
The Conservative party likes to boast that it, combined with our FPTP electoral system, provides strong and stable government. Well, a fat lot of strength and stability the Tory party and FPTP system have given us in the last two years!
- a point that could equally be made about the last Major government, not to mention Wilson/Callaghan from 1974 to 1979.
We’ve had two Prime Ministers, Cameron and May, who will have historians squabbling for years as to whether they are the worst or second worst or third worst Prime Ministers in the history of this country!
No argument there.
David Cameron put party before country when he promised an EU referendum, ending with his political shredding.
Here I part company with Paul. A referendum was necessary, especially as we Liberal Democrats had already floated the idea in the 1990s. It should, however, have been held in the early years of the coalition government (instead of that pointless AV affair) while the arguments could still have been discussed for the most part dispassionately and the Labour leadership's stance was unambiguous. Moreover, the electors should have been told that, constitutionally, they were giving an opinion not a final judgment. This rested with parliament, although if there was a more than 75% vote for a change (the usual percentage for constitutional amendments in clubs and societies throughout the land), the government would have taken notice.
I always told anyone who would listen that May’s decision to call an election was the right thing for the country. After the June 23rd 2016 referendum we needed a national democratic event to sort-out the situation. So I commend May for calling the election [...]. The rub is that May didn’t call the election for the good of the country, she called it for the good of herself.
- calling it not straight away, but delaying it until it caused maximum damage constitutionally, confusing the issues in the local government elections. It had one no doubt desired effect, hitting the smaller parties in the pocket and, with the presidential-style media blitz, squeezing their vote.
The result of the election gives me great reason for optimism. The arrangement with the DUP won’t last five years. It is constitutionally correct that the make-up of Parliament dictates the government. And the DUP will be involved long enough to stop a hard Brexit by means of keeping the porous Irish border. Dependent on which parties provide the deputy speakers, Theresa May will have a working majority of 8-10. With by-elections happening on average at the rate of 2-3 a year, that isn’t going to last her five years, plus there are bound to be enormous complications in Ireland, because of the DUP’s involvement in sustaining the UK government.
Another factor will be the tension between the DUP members who follow an old-time religion and Mrs May's loyal unionists in Scotland who gained thirteen seats for her and who are led by an out gay woman.
At least the UK will have a working and continuing administration for the time being, which will calm the international money markets.
it is becoming more and more crazy that this country has not, at least as an interim “holding” solution, gone for the Norway (EEA/EFTA) option. The ludicrous and (I believe) unconstitutional decision by Theresa May to rule out membership of the Single Market, and even, unbelievably, the Customs Union, was one of the most heinous acts of any British Prime Minister ever. The sooner we come to our senses and realise that EEA/EFTA memberships offers us a temporary sanctuary while we compose ourselves, the better.
For the sake of commerce, industry and agriculture, this is the only practical solution, although it involves accepting free movement of labour, which will not please a sizeable section of the Leave vote. Also disgruntled would be the black end of the financial services industry, which was looking forward to a stop to and possible reversal of regulation. It does, however, satisfy the other Leavers' demands, that EU directives do not have to be passed into UK law.
Saturday, 10 June 2017
Nick Clegg
I must admit that my first reaction on hearing that Nick Clegg had lost his seat in Westminster was one of relief, both for him and the party. It frees him from the mundane work of parliament, the constituency and the party which always seemed to be irksome. He can move on to a more high-profile rôle while he is still relatively young - though a peerage might prove useful.
For the party, it removes a focus on which the media might build a theme of challenge to the leadership, at a time when Tim Farron needs to consolidate. Of course, it is sad to lose Sheffield Hallam, which Richard Allan first held for us when the constituency was formed in 1997 and then passed on to Nick in order for the latter to move from Strasbourg to Westminster. However, smart money is on another general election in the near future and students may well pass judgment on Jeremy Corbyn's failure to abolish tuition fees.
For the party, it removes a focus on which the media might build a theme of challenge to the leadership, at a time when Tim Farron needs to consolidate. Of course, it is sad to lose Sheffield Hallam, which Richard Allan first held for us when the constituency was formed in 1997 and then passed on to Nick in order for the latter to move from Strasbourg to Westminster. However, smart money is on another general election in the near future and students may well pass judgment on Jeremy Corbyn's failure to abolish tuition fees.
Friday, 9 June 2017
Better gender balance
A third of the new Liberal Democrat bench will be female which must be our best female-to-male ratio ever.
I am sorry that Jackie Pearcey in Gorton (surely robbed of a by-election win by Mrs May's bizarre demand for a general election), Kelly-Marie Blundell in Lewes, Eluned Parrott in Cardiff Central and Jane Dodds in Montgomery did not make it even better. But maybe their turn will come as this May-fly parliament can not stagger on much beyond Christmas.
I am sorry that Jackie Pearcey in Gorton (surely robbed of a by-election win by Mrs May's bizarre demand for a general election), Kelly-Marie Blundell in Lewes, Eluned Parrott in Cardiff Central and Jane Dodds in Montgomery did not make it even better. But maybe their turn will come as this May-fly parliament can not stagger on much beyond Christmas.
Even crossing my toes would not have worked
03:20 I lost my deposit and finished behind UKIP again. However, as I watch BBC-Wales coverage it seems I am not alone, and even such a great campaign as Rory Daniels' in Llanelli achieved only a 3% return. Plaid slipped from second to third place in spite of an excellent campaign by an Alltwen-based candidate. The Conservatives benefited from fielding a candidate who, for once, lived in the constituency instead of being parachuted in, but even more from the media (including the BBC, sad to say) presenting the general election as simply a clash between the personalities of Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May. But of course congratulations must go to Christina Rees who with her team has returned Neath to the heady days for Labour of 2001 with an absolute majority over all other parties, in spite of some ill-informed personal criticism on social media and even from within her own party locally.
03:50 Kate Hoey has won and Nick Clegg has lost. So there is a two-seat swing towards a hard Brexit. It also seems that the anti-gay campaign in Vauxhall came off.
08:00 Woke to find Andrew Neil on BBC-1 and Piers Morgan on ITV-1. Luckily, BBC-Parliament was relaying BBC Scotland's more intelligent coverage. There was some great analysis of the situation not only in Scotland but also in the UK as a whole.
Scottish LDs missed out on a fourth gain by only two votes in North-East Fife after the returning officer refused a fourth recount. However, Jo Swinson will be back at Westminster. The estimable Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP in the last Commons, and Alex Salmond both lost their seats to Conservatives. There will be a constitutional issue as so many Conservatives from a Scottish parliament regional list were successful that, saving one being allowed a dual mandate, the party will be one short in Holyrood until 2021.
I was struck by the amount of poetry quoted. Alex Salmond said au revoir rather than adieu with a couplet from Sir Walter Scott: "And tremble, false Whigs, in the midst of your glee, You have not seen the last of my bonnet and me!". The chair of the panel responded with a line from Browning's "The Lost Leader": "Never glad confident morning again! ", only to be topped by veteran political editor Brian Taylor who recalled Shelley's memorial to the Peterloo massacre which closes:
Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number,
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few
There were so many near misses by Liberal Democrats in England and a desperate loss by Mark Williams in Ceredigion which means that there will be no Liberal or Liberal Democrat MP in Wales probably since the 1890s. I take comfort from the fact that the party still has its largest membership ever and that the last time we had a surge in membership it took a few years for that to be reflected in parliament. We should take inspiration from that Shelley verse.
03:50 Kate Hoey has won and Nick Clegg has lost. So there is a two-seat swing towards a hard Brexit. It also seems that the anti-gay campaign in Vauxhall came off.
08:00 Woke to find Andrew Neil on BBC-1 and Piers Morgan on ITV-1. Luckily, BBC-Parliament was relaying BBC Scotland's more intelligent coverage. There was some great analysis of the situation not only in Scotland but also in the UK as a whole.
Scottish LDs missed out on a fourth gain by only two votes in North-East Fife after the returning officer refused a fourth recount. However, Jo Swinson will be back at Westminster. The estimable Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP in the last Commons, and Alex Salmond both lost their seats to Conservatives. There will be a constitutional issue as so many Conservatives from a Scottish parliament regional list were successful that, saving one being allowed a dual mandate, the party will be one short in Holyrood until 2021.
I was struck by the amount of poetry quoted. Alex Salmond said au revoir rather than adieu with a couplet from Sir Walter Scott: "And tremble, false Whigs, in the midst of your glee, You have not seen the last of my bonnet and me!". The chair of the panel responded with a line from Browning's "The Lost Leader": "Never glad confident morning again! ", only to be topped by veteran political editor Brian Taylor who recalled Shelley's memorial to the Peterloo massacre which closes:
Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number,
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few
There were so many near misses by Liberal Democrats in England and a desperate loss by Mark Williams in Ceredigion which means that there will be no Liberal or Liberal Democrat MP in Wales probably since the 1890s. I take comfort from the fact that the party still has its largest membership ever and that the last time we had a surge in membership it took a few years for that to be reflected in parliament. We should take inspiration from that Shelley verse.
Thursday, 8 June 2017
Crossed fingers
Stray thoughts to be added to as the day wears on.
10:03 Just back from casting my ballot.
Nothing I write now is going to make much difference to our vote in Aberavon and Neath. (Let's face it, nothing I have written here up until now has been taken notice. Well, perhaps there were a few minor improvements have been made around Neath, for which the Labour council claimed credit.)
I just hope that by this time tomorrow there is not a majority May or a majority Corbyn government, nor that a year from now we will not have to say: "I told you so". If Mrs May gets her majority, she and her hard-line free marketeer friends will achieve the dream of London as a totally independent lightly regulated financial capital of the world at the expense of industry and SMEs which benefit from the single market and customs union. Mr Corbyn is only slightly less suspicious of the EU, but what worries me most about a Corbyn administration is the quality of his shadow cabinet. He has not been helped by the last-minute resignation of one of his most experienced figures, Diane Abbott, because of ill-health.
There were some snippets in the i newspaper this morning that caught my eye. Fishermen will not vote for any party which wants to remain in the EU, and I can see their point. Almost alone of groups in the UK, they are worse off under a common EU policy. However, I would advise against trusting the Conservatives on this issue, because it was Margaret Thatcher who negotiated away the UK's fishing rights in the first place when she did not have to. Does Mrs May believe she is a tougher negotiator on behalf of Britain than Mrs Thatcher was?
Then hats off to the i for featuring Sophie Walker of the Women's Equality Party among its portraits of leaders. However, a significant rise in the Liberal Democrat vote would do more for women's equality in parliament than the WEP, because there are so many strong women (including several with experience of actual government, Mr Corbyn) in the Lib Dems target seats.
10:30 My agent has phoned to say that the chill he picked up returning from a short break in France has got worse. I think our little tour of the constituency today may be curtailed. Hopefully, the dope the doc. has given him will restore his fighting strength for the count tonight.
13:30 Back from delivering admission tickets to some of our counting agents and dropping in on just a few of the polling stations on the way back. All very quiet, but the weather has been dreadful. Just enough time to buy a couple of packed sandwiches from Arbourne's ready for tonight, then to put my head down for an hour or so.
17:00 Dozed for an hour or so in between listening to Radio 4. Interesting item on the science programme about Homo Sapiens finds in Morocco putting our species' history back at least another hundred thousand years. A researcher stated that the shape of the brain-case indicated that we have developed larger brains over the years. Sometimes I wonder. Coincidentally, Haaretz has reported Israeli finds which tend to confirm that Neanderthal man hung around there later than generally assumed.
18:30 Back to the i, and the election summary. Under "leadership", it once again raises the fact that Tim Farron is uncomfortable talking about his church's teaching on homosexuality. The fact is that he has practically always voted in a liberal way when there have been debates on termination, same-sex relationships or similar social issues. There is not a mention of the fact that Theresa May has tended to vote in a more illiberal way than her membership of the tolerant Church of England would suggest. It is a transparent ploy to dissuade our supporters to stay away from the polls rather than a genuine political point.
10:03 Just back from casting my ballot.
Nothing I write now is going to make much difference to our vote in Aberavon and Neath. (Let's face it, nothing I have written here up until now has been taken notice. Well, perhaps there were a few minor improvements have been made around Neath, for which the Labour council claimed credit.)
I just hope that by this time tomorrow there is not a majority May or a majority Corbyn government, nor that a year from now we will not have to say: "I told you so". If Mrs May gets her majority, she and her hard-line free marketeer friends will achieve the dream of London as a totally independent lightly regulated financial capital of the world at the expense of industry and SMEs which benefit from the single market and customs union. Mr Corbyn is only slightly less suspicious of the EU, but what worries me most about a Corbyn administration is the quality of his shadow cabinet. He has not been helped by the last-minute resignation of one of his most experienced figures, Diane Abbott, because of ill-health.
There were some snippets in the i newspaper this morning that caught my eye. Fishermen will not vote for any party which wants to remain in the EU, and I can see their point. Almost alone of groups in the UK, they are worse off under a common EU policy. However, I would advise against trusting the Conservatives on this issue, because it was Margaret Thatcher who negotiated away the UK's fishing rights in the first place when she did not have to. Does Mrs May believe she is a tougher negotiator on behalf of Britain than Mrs Thatcher was?
Then hats off to the i for featuring Sophie Walker of the Women's Equality Party among its portraits of leaders. However, a significant rise in the Liberal Democrat vote would do more for women's equality in parliament than the WEP, because there are so many strong women (including several with experience of actual government, Mr Corbyn) in the Lib Dems target seats.
10:30 My agent has phoned to say that the chill he picked up returning from a short break in France has got worse. I think our little tour of the constituency today may be curtailed. Hopefully, the dope the doc. has given him will restore his fighting strength for the count tonight.
13:30 Back from delivering admission tickets to some of our counting agents and dropping in on just a few of the polling stations on the way back. All very quiet, but the weather has been dreadful. Just enough time to buy a couple of packed sandwiches from Arbourne's ready for tonight, then to put my head down for an hour or so.
17:00 Dozed for an hour or so in between listening to Radio 4. Interesting item on the science programme about Homo Sapiens finds in Morocco putting our species' history back at least another hundred thousand years. A researcher stated that the shape of the brain-case indicated that we have developed larger brains over the years. Sometimes I wonder. Coincidentally, Haaretz has reported Israeli finds which tend to confirm that Neanderthal man hung around there later than generally assumed.
18:30 Back to the i, and the election summary. Under "leadership", it once again raises the fact that Tim Farron is uncomfortable talking about his church's teaching on homosexuality. The fact is that he has practically always voted in a liberal way when there have been debates on termination, same-sex relationships or similar social issues. There is not a mention of the fact that Theresa May has tended to vote in a more illiberal way than her membership of the tolerant Church of England would suggest. It is a transparent ploy to dissuade our supporters to stay away from the polls rather than a genuine political point.
Wednesday, 7 June 2017
A Belgian stand-off?
David Hancox's letter to the FT refers.
We could have a hung parliament* after tomorrow. Tim Farron clearly regards both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May as bad prime ministers and will not take the parliamentary party into coalition with them, so there may well be no prime minister for some time to come, unless either May or Corbyn are ditched by their parties.
Not so long ago, Belgium went for 589 days without an elected government. The country ticked over quite well in the care of her civil servants, and only hit trouble when a prime minister was appointed. Perhaps we should not fear a "Belgian stand-off".
* My guess is that Conservative gains in Scotland plus the perennial support of the NI unionists will see Mrs May through. The irony of a Conservative administration being dependent on Scottish votes for survival will not be lost on the Labour Party.
We could have a hung parliament* after tomorrow. Tim Farron clearly regards both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May as bad prime ministers and will not take the parliamentary party into coalition with them, so there may well be no prime minister for some time to come, unless either May or Corbyn are ditched by their parties.
Not so long ago, Belgium went for 589 days without an elected government. The country ticked over quite well in the care of her civil servants, and only hit trouble when a prime minister was appointed. Perhaps we should not fear a "Belgian stand-off".
* My guess is that Conservative gains in Scotland plus the perennial support of the NI unionists will see Mrs May through. The irony of a Conservative administration being dependent on Scottish votes for survival will not be lost on the Labour Party.
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