UK economic downturn strikes local businesses

 They survived the 2007/8 credit crunch and seemingly the Covid-19 epidemic, but the current stagflation has driven under two major South Wales businesses. Garth Bakery is a familiar name to users of  convenience stores throughout the region. The thirty-nine year old company has been forced into administration and, though the name and assets may be picked up  by another entrepreneur, nearly 100 people will have lost their jobs. A similar number will be thrown out of work by the collapse of an even older business, Jehu of Bridgend. Their board used to be everywhere, with several major construction projects having been entrusted to them. If the Bank of England is to be believed, then these two will not be the last businesses to collapse under the combined pressure of rising costs and decline in economic activity 

Shunting off decarbonisation

 On Wednesday, prime minister Sunak, in his COP27 report and in answers to questions on it, repeatedly claimed that his government was the world leader in meeting its net zero target. Later this week, Railfuture's newsletter informed us that Network Rail

can no longer afford the rolling programme of electrification needed to deliver its Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy by 2050. The increase in electricity prices has removed the operating cost advantage of electric over diesel, and carbon emissions from rail transport are insignificant compared to road transport

The message does not seem to have got through to this publicly-owned organisaton.

The mid-terms are more than practice laps for the presidency

   - but that is how too many commentators have reported the congressional elections over here. The BBC in particular have viewed the results only in relation to Donald Trump's prospects for the 2024 presidential election. They are fascinated by rogues and villains to the detriment of political enlightenment.

The justification for extensive UK coverage of the mid-term elections is to report the implication for the UK economy, which is linked to that of the US, and for Europe generally. For instance, what happens to US resistance to Russian empire-building if the Republicans achieve a blocking majority in Congress?

The triple-lock tide looks irresistible

 Regular readers will know of my personal interest in the state pension guarantee, which was suspended last year. There is also a political interest in that the triple-lock was a Liberal Democrat measure which was brought to the coalition in 2010 against initial resistance by the Conservatives, who had proposed a much meaner mechanism for uprating pensions.

It was interesting to see in yesterday's debate in the House of Commons how the triple-lock has been accepted by all sides. Labour see themselves as the great defenders of the policy, Conservative back-benchers endorsed it and the government speakers claimed credit for a better record on pensions that the previous Labour government, largely as a result of the triple-lock, though without naming it. Wendy Chamberlain for the Liberal Democrats diplomatically refrained from making political capital from the true origins of the policy.

As many speakers pointed out, the value of the state pension may have increased somewhat in cash terms, but has fallen back in real terms, that is, after taking inflation into account. However, it was left to the SNP's Alan Brown to draw the bigger picture:

When we look at the UK in the round, we see that it is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Unfortunately, that inequality continues during retirement. The Gini coefficient shows that the UK is 14th out of 14 north-west European countries. It is the same for the S80:S20 quintile share ratio; when we compare the ratio of the poorest to the richest, the UK has by far the worst ratio and is again 14th out of 14. Scandinavian countries—all small, independent countries—lead the way on these measures.

Poorer pay and lower incomes for those struggling also means that later on in life they are less likely to have private pensions and so are reliant on the UK state pension. Again, the UK state pension fails in comparison with those of other countries. When we look at the proportion of earnings derived from state pensions, the UK sits 30th out of 37 OECD countries. I understand that there is an argument that it can be good to move away from dependence on state pensions, but the UK is clearly among outlier countries near the bottom of the pile, and way below the OECD average. Many people are using occupational pensions and capital as sources of income, but that increases inequality in pension age for those without access to such means.

There was a farcical end to the debate as the government resorted to a ploy which has become all too frequent since 2012: Conservatives forced a division on the Opposition's motion, but then declined to vote. We await the chancellor's financial statement next week, but he can surely not resist the tide of support for restitution of the guarantee.

Farewell, Neil Taylor

 At the tender age for a defender of 33, former Swans favourite Neil Taylor has decided to call it a day. (Gareth Bale, media star and captain of the Welsh 2022 World Cup team is the same age, but clearly has not worked himself as hard.)  The FAW website recalls:

Taylor played every minute of all six games for Cymru at EURO 2016 as Chris Coleman's side reached the semi-finals, and scored his one and only international goal in the memorable 3-0 win over Russia in Toulouse that ensured that his side would finish top of Group B and qualify for the R16. One of Coleman's most-trusted defenders, Taylor will forever hold a place in the hearts of the Cymru fans who witnessed that incredible tournament as the side defied the odds.

He was part of the squad which saw Aston Villa's promotion to the Premier League. He has also been a role model for young players of Indian heritage like himself.

They may not be saviours, but they are better than the alternative

 Kate Maltby had a pop at Jacinda Ardern, Justin Trudeau and Luis da Silva in the Independent the other week. About the Brazilian president-elect, she wrote:

You may, like me, have seen your social media pages flood this week with declarations of joy at Lula’s ascent. Lefty friends of mine changed their profile pictures to warm-filtered images of the former trade-unionist, hands raised in victory. How many of them, I wondered, could provide a basic summary of the Bolsa Família programme, cornerstone of Lula’s economic platform when he last led the nation between 2003 and 2011.The Bolsa Família was one of the largest cash transfers from rich to poor in the world – but crucially, it was also conditional. Under Lula, poor families received unprecedented financial support, but only if their children were kept in school and the parents proved themselves functional members of society. Lula’s supporters still claim that the Bolsa Família programme had a transformative effect on truancy rates and workplace productivity.

But what did Bolsonaro or his conservative predecessors do for those children? And would Lula have been able to push his Familia programme through parliament without those checks?

Maltby is justified in criticising Lula for swallowing the Kremlin line about the Ukraine invasion. However, he is not the only man of the left not to realise that Putin gave up all pretence to be a socialist long ago and that his United Russia party has all the trappings of fascism. Corbyn is not the only Putin apologist in the UK. 

She describes Ardern and Trudeau as failures. I had my doubts about the Liberal leader, his willingness to go along with the US world view and especially being linked to a political scandal. However, he must have done more right than wrong in the eyes of the Canadian electorate, because the Liberals have been returned to power three times since defeating the Conservatives in 2011. Jacinda Ardern's Labour party had an even more convincing endorsement in 2020, turning a minority into a majority government. New Zealand was grateful for the lead she took in resisting the advance of Covid-19 in the country. If only more governments in the world had acted as quickly and decisively!

No government project should be exempt from review

 It is surely right that in a time of financial stress, the Treasury should insist on major capital spending coming under review. So it is right that Chancellor Hunt should launch such a review. An early official briefing included the Sizewell C nuclear power plant in this, but this was denied by the government on the same day. Why? Are the Tories in thrall to China? Or is there a secret deal with France: cooperation over cross-channel migration d  epends on continued subsidy for the massive experiment on the East Anglian coast. In addition to the uncertainties about the viability of the design, there are doubts about the suitability of the location, exposed as it is to coastal erosion. There is also the problem of supplying cooling water,

It is not as if EDF is the only provider of a nuclear solution to the problem of providing a continuous, non-carbon-based, supply of electricity for the future. Rolls-Royce's SMRs show a way forward with fewer uncertainties and one wonders why the regulatory process (currently estimated at two years) takes so long.

HS2 is also coming under review, but only the northern part, where surely investment will provide more substantial and faster pay-backs than the London-Birmingham section. Links to the capital from the Midlands may be in need of supplementing, but they exist. Trans-Pennine business and industry is crying out for new routes and connectivity. Slowing work on the southern section, whose appeal is largely to the commuter, and prioritising the northern is a surer way to the growth that the government is aiming for.

Better government with fair votes

C of E and PR

"If proportional representation is good enough for the General Synod, why not for the country’s voting system?"

This article in "Church Times" of 21 October in support of PR is well worth reading and quoting. You can also write a letter to the Editor to support the article or to respond to letters that others have written.  PR_ChurchTimes_21.10.22

Labour and PR

Although the Labour Party Conference voted for PR on 26 September, Sir Keir Starmer has said that PR is not a priority for him and it will not be in Labour’s manifesto for the next general election.

Would you please sign the petition [LabourPRpetition]LabourPRpetition22 for Labour to put PR in its next manifesto?  You can also write direct to Sir Keir at leader@labour.org.uk   Those of you who have Labour MPs may like to write to them.

What did British People vote for?

This is an extract from Suella Braverman’s resignation letter of 19 October:

“They [the British people] deserve policing they can respect, an immigration policy they want and voted for in such unambiguous numbers at the last election”.

This isn’t the place to discuss the rights and wrongs of the Government’s immigration policy (or the Government’s difficulties generally), but the British people voted for it in such unambiguous numbers?  Only 43.6% of voters (29.3% of British electors as there was a 67.3% turnout) voted Conservative but I don’t think any journalists or commentators picked up on that.

The Instability of FPTP

MP Gillian Keegan, has become the fifth Education Secretary in only four months.  We have also had five Chancellors in four months.

We are now on our third Prime Minister in two months and the fifth in six years.  There have been four Home Secretaries (including Suella Braverman twice) in only two months!

Do opponents of proportional representation still claim that First Past The Post voting provides stability?

[Acknowledgements to Anthony Tuffin of the Campaign for Real Democracy]