Tuesday 3 March 2020

Problems of an ageing EU population

From the pages of the European Parliament's Think Tank:

Demography matters. The economy and the labour market, but also social protection, intergenerational fairness and healthcare, the environment, food and nutrition are all driven by demography. The population of EU countries has grown substantially – by around a quarter since 1960 – and currently it stands at almost 450 million. The numbers are now beginning to stagnate however and are expected to decline from around the middle of the century. With the world population having risen still more substantially and growth continuing, the EU represents a shrinking proportion of the global population. The EU population is also ageing dramatically, as life expectancy increases and fertility rates fall below past levels. This has serious implications across a range of areas including the economy, healthcare and pensions. Free movement within the EU and migration from third countries also play an important role in shaping demography in individual Member States and regions. 
There is more here.

It is likely that the UK will suffer less from this than the EU, whose economy will pick up faster when the current recession ends. The Johnson government's proposals for immigration will probably cope with any shortages of highly qualified staff, and the reduced post-Brexit industrial activity means that there will be less pressure on the unskilled and semi-skilled labour market. However, for the EU as a whole, there will have to be hard choices as to who to let in and for how long.

All the foregoing is separate from our, and the EU's, obligation to take in genuine refugees.

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