Friday, 27 May 2016

Independent experts' verdict on Brexit

The Institute for Fiscal Studies is a determinedly independent body and does not (as Nigel Farage alleges) bend its views to those of the people who pay for its reports. Those political parties which have commissioned the IFS to review their manifesto costings (and I believe the Liberal Democrats were first to do this) are only too well aware that they do not temper their criticism in this way. The IFS's judgment on the consequences of the UK leaving the EU should therefore be heeded.

It does not endorse the apocalyptic visions conjured up by David Cameron and George Osborne, ranging from takeover by Putin and/or Da'esh to a doubling of Fiona's school fees (or something like that). However, it shows logically that there will be bad effects on the UK economy whether we continue to trade tariff-free with the EU (and therefore continue to contribute to the Union's treasury) or not.

It is purely a view from the standpoint of economists and does not touch on the social impact of Brexit, which I believe is the more imminent danger.

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