Tuesday 21 January 2020

Be careful what you wish for

America's policy on external trade will be important to us as we are cast adrift on the world economic ocean with only sketchy charts. There seems to be a general impression on social media that things will improve if there is a change of US president. However, the Democrats have for a long time been regarded as the more protectionist of the two big parties in the States. Trump's populist moves against China and the EU (including Scotland and Wales) are an aberration in Republican history.

Indeed, the Democrat contenders for the presidency seem to be at one in criticising Trump for not being more successful in his tariff policy. Now, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate has attacked the president for backing down over the renminmbi/dollar exchange rate.

This is not an argument for rolling over to Trump in any trade negotiations. However, it is a warning that we should not expect a softer line from the US if there is a change of administration. We should also be prepared to walk away if any deal would compromise our standards.

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